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Good Time of Year

2007-08-08T19:02:00.000-05:00

Opening the Oregonian today led to a surprising and welcome sight. Actual sports news and thoughts that were relevant to sports fans. I can only take so much on fishing and brief stories from around the baseball world. With football underway and the Blazers training camp nearing, things are looking up in Oregon.

All I ask of the Mariners is to keep me interested until August so they can then turn it over to football...which they've done.

So a quick look at the Oregonian reveals that John Canzano thinks Mike Bellotti has been skating by which I agree with to some degree.

I think it a big time school, Bellotti would have been forced to clean out his desk the day after the arse kicking administered by BYU in the Vegas Bowl, but being the Dean of the Pac-10 gives you a little bit of leeway. Trouble is, since the Fiesta Bowl, arguably Oregon's crowning moment under Bellotti, the team has really been average. For all the money and resources they pour into the program, they haven't necessarily been re-paid with wins. According to the boys at Coaches Hot Seat, Bellotti is behind Mike Riley, Bill Doba, Karl Dorrell, Mike Stoops and Jeff Tedford in cost per win ranking. Not sure what significance that holds, but I think Canzano presents a few valid points on Bellotti.

I would counter that Oregon would be wise to not fall into the never-ending trap of hiring and firing coaches. Getting into that cycle is difficult for programs to get out of and Oregon, despite it's money and resources is probably still a second tier gig (if not lower) nationally. There will always be somewhere higher for a young coach to go. Bellotti was once courted by Notre Dame and Ohio State but stayed with Oregon. That kind of loyalty needs to be re-paid in my mind.

Of course had he gone, Jeff Tedford might have been named coach...nevermind.

------------------------------------UPDATE-----------------------------------------
SI's Stewart Mandel has an interesting idea about Bellotti in this article. He claims, and I think he's spot on, that Phil Knight will have a lot to do with Bellotti's job security. As a huge fan and bigtime booster, I'm sure he'll make his opinion known if things don't improve soon. And Phil's opinion is pretty important in Eugene.

There is another school in Oregon (other than Oregon and Oregon State) and it's Portland State, that urban school in the Big Sky Conference. Previously irrelevant until the arrival of Jerry Glanville, who immediately brought in some style and panache to the program. Tim Walsh was a great man and a good coach, but cmon, it's Jerry Glanville!

Taking a page from the Ducks down the road, Portland State has broken out it's own terrible uniforms. Glanville has some funny comments about the uniforms in this article. I think that Glanville will be a well-liked addition to the sports fraternity in Oregon. Besides, I think he will win at Portland State and bringing Mouse Davis home from Hawaii was a major major coup. Look for PSU to become a good Big Sky team and look further for Oregon and Oregon State to decline to play the Viks in a few years.

Now comes word out of Corvallis of an imminent quarterback battle for the Beavers. Perhaps Riley didn't want to play Canfield last year because he just wasn't that good. I don't know, but the majority of Beaver fans wanted Matt Moore out but the oft maligned senior rebounded to have a pretty good year and left on a high note. Now, Canfield is neck and neck with Lyle Moevao for the QB job.

Oregon State is the only Pac-10 needing to break in a new QB. Optimism is high in Corvallis with several returnees including RB Yvenson Bernard. But the Beavs will roll out an unproven quarterback this fall and that QB will surely cost them a game or two. Canfield has supposedly been the golden child since he first set foot on campus. Moevao has been more of an unknown but has grown on players, coaches and the media.

My guess is that Canfield starts but Moevao gets some playing time and eventually becomes Oregon State's next Jonathan Smith.

In Blazer news, the organization announced a couple of 10 game packages for those unwilling (like me) to fork over the big bucks for season tickets. One of the packages includes a "big game package" which includes teams like Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit and the like. I guess the question is, would you rather see Portland win or see a good team and maybe lose?

Finally, back to the Ducks. It seams that Oregon is seeking to play Boise State in in China in 2009. Calling it "very Oregon", UO director of football operations says "you like to be on the edge. You like to be the first." Oregon was also the first team on the West Coast to add an indoor practice facility. Also the first team to add a space-age locker-room with a door that opens up and down instead of like those normal wimpy doors other teams have. Unfortunately, they were also the first to have uniforms like this.

However, like the Mo Center I think a game in China is an amazing idea. Yes, China is the new frontier for US sports, everyone is trying to capture that market and the enormous population. But this will be an incredible experience for the Duck players, coaches and staffers. It may also help recruiting if players think they'll have a chance to visit some far off land on the university's dime. I mean China is no Pullman but it's close.

Some Interesting links

2007-08-06T18:48:00.000-05:00

Part one and part two of a three-part study of the job Mike Stoops has done at Arizona since taking over for John Mackovic.

He makes some good points but I still hate Arizona and Mike Stoops, mostly because of his comments he made after Oregon escaped Tuscon with a 28-21 win over the Wildcats. In this game, quarterback Kellen Clemens' career was ended with a broken ankle and Dennis Dixon suffered a concusion. Afterwards, Stoops said something to the effect of, "our defense played well, they knocked out two quarterbacks."

When you look at the comments, not terrible but also not classy in the slightest. He should have complimented his defense and not mentioned the injuries or said that he hoped that they could return to the field soon. Instead, he complimented his team for injuring two players. I can't stand Stoops for this and several other reasons.

This is an interesting study though.

Here's a study of the SEC vs. Pac-10 Schedules. He makes some great points regarding the SEC's schedule:

The typical SEC format is 4-4-4: four games against other strong or solid SEC opponents, four games against the dregs of the SEC, and four freebies against out-of-conference weak sisters. And half of the teams play all of those out-of-conference games at home. What does that prove? Nothing.

Sure, LSU is in a conference in which four other teams are ranked, but LSU does not play them all. Georgia and Tennessee may be ranked, but neither is on the LSU schedule. And the only road game of note is at Alabama, which is about the 40th best team in the country. The Tigers' road games are Mississippi State, Tulane, Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi.

He brings up some interesting points.

Here is a fascinating website studying college football coaches. Click around the site if you are a college football fan, you will not be disappointed. Some highlights for me: The Hippo Standards, a look at salaries and contracts and also a look at 2006 cost per win.
Basically a really cool site for fans of college football and coaching.

Finally, the new basketball coach at Butler is 30, used to work in sales and quit his 9-5 desk job to begin a career in college basketball. I'm 28, a low-level assistant at a small high school in Oregon and want to coach. I'm behind the eight ball.

Finally, finally, Tuesday Morning Quarterback returns!

Pac-10: A Pointless Season?

2007-08-05T11:04:00.000-05:00

Everyone says USC is the hands down favorite. Every year, a buddy and I pick the Pac-10 runner-up because we figure USC has got the title in the bag every year. The Pac-10 coaches are not stupid (Mike Stoops is but the rest aren't) and they unanimously voted USC to win the Pac-10. True, there are a few games that could be difficult (possibly at Oregon if they can find a quarterback) and definitely at California on November 10.

The Pac-10 can be broken into four distinct tiers.

A Tier
USC – simply loaded all over the field, particularly on defense where they return 10 starters including all star performers FS Taylor Mays, NT Sedrick Ellis, LB’s Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers to name a few. John David Booty is back and will probably amass big numbers after a year of experience. Any number of the 10 scholarship running backs could be a breakout performer. To put it simply, the Trojans are obviously loaded and are making a mockery out of the Pac-10 and leaving the rest to play for second and the prestigious Holiday Bowl.

B Tier
Cal – Jeff Tedford has turned Cal into a western powerhouse, one step below USC but a step above everyone else on the west coast. They only return seven starters on offense but they are some big names. Junior Nate Longshore returns after a quietly stellar sophomore season where he passed for over 3,000 yards and 24 TD’s. He’s got great weapons out wide in DeSean Jackson (who is easily one of the most exciting players in the nation), Robert Jordan, LaVelle Hawkins and Sam DeSa. Plus TB Justin Forsett returns for what seems like his 8th season at Berkley. They are a step above everyone else and a step below USC.

C Tier - this is the biggest tier of them all. I figure teams 3-7 are in here.

OSU - despite the fact that their quarterback situation is unsettled, I like OSU at the top of the C Tier. They return 15 starters on offense including stud running back Yvenson Bernard and 2006 breakout performer Sammie Stroughter. Their offensive line is loaded in the middle led by guards Jeremy Perry, Kyle DeVan and Roy Schuening. They should open big holes for Bernard to once again run through. Whoever the quarterback is, Canfield or Moevao, there are plenty of weapons to find and both have been in the system for three years. Mike Riley appears to have things on the rise in Corvallis.

UCLA - UCLA returns 20 starters on offense and defense from a team that went 7-6 last year and lost to Florida State in the Emerald Bowl. Karl Dorrell always appears to be on the hot seat. Dorrell has always been on the hot seat as UCLA’s teams have been erratic. Quarterback Ben Olsen returns as does backup Ryan Cowan, both of whom played last year. TB Chris Markey is one of only three running backs returning with over 1,000 yards rushing and should be a force this season. The defense is the strength but depth is an issue. 10 starters return on “D” but an injury or two could be devastating for UCLA.

Arizona - As a “journalist” I try to be objective but I really can’t stand Mike Stoops. I think he’s arrogant and a blowhard and not that great of a coach. He gets his players so riled up that they make stupid plays and they hurt themselves when they shouldn’t. He can recruit though. Defensively, Arizona has always been good. Antoine Cason is a hard-hitting DB and anchors a fast and tough “D”. It’s the offense that has been brutal for the Wildcats but the addition of Sonny Dykes from Texas Tech should fix that. He’ll inject some life into the offense and possibly help all-everything quarterback Willie Tuitama reach his potential. Of course Dykes works for a Stoops who left Tuitama in a game in which he received a serious concussion. Idiot.

Oregon - I’m a Duck fan so I’ll try to be objective. They’re really good or really bad. I just don’t know. Much of the talk has been on Dennis Dixon and his struggles last year and his decision to go play baseball rather than stick around and do passing drills. I think it was just meant to be a mental escape for Dixon to get away from Eugene so he can get a fresh start this year. All it did was increase the scrutiny and pressure on him as each miscue will be met with a “what if?” shrug from the fans. The focus on Dixon has overshadowed several things in Eugene, namely leadership (is there any?) Chip Kelly (how will his new offense play in the Pac-10?) and Jonathan Stewart (will he get the ball?). There’s talent in Eugene but can they put it all together?

ASU - Did you know Dennis Erickson is coaching ASU? Of course you did, everyone knows that. The coaches gave ASU a ton of love, ranking them fourth in the preseason poll. I don’t see that happening but it won’t take Erickson long to reacquaint himself with the top of the conference. He’s upgraded his talent from what he had at Idaho but they’re still suspect on “D”. They do get most of their tough games at home including Cal, USC and OSU but travel to Oregon and UCLA. They return Rudy Carpenter who is somewhere between what he was as a freshman and what he was last year. He rebounded to have a decent year, tossing 23 TD’s and has nine other offensive starters returning including TB Ryan Torain who rushed for 1,229 yards last year. The defense was soft last year, getting torched by Cal and Oregon but they did a good job later in the season.

D Tier - Washington, Washington State and Stanford. These teams are rebuilding and will probably play the role of spoiler. Washington State is particularly dangerous because I think games in Pullman in late October/early November are difficult games to win. Jim Harbaugh is the new coach at Stanford and is using his mouth to get some attention for the Cardinal. The fact is, they’re terrible and his verbal swipes at big time programs like USC and Michigan isn’t going to endear him to many AD’s and Presidents. Washington has Ty Willingham whom I really like and think is a great man. I don’t know how great of a coach he is but I think he’ll return Washington to respectability if they give him more than three years. It’ll take a bit more time for him to turn that around after Kevin Gilbride flew that thing into the mountain.

Blazers Leapfrog Two

2007-08-04T11:34:00.000-05:00

Tip-off is still months away but the Blazers have already leapfrogged two Western Division foes. Kevin Garnett has already been shipped east but now comes word that Elton Brand has ruptured his Achilles tendon.

Neither Minnesota or Los Angeles were playoff teams last year, but neither was Portland. In the quest to reach the playoffs, which is still somewhat of a pipe dream for Portland, they'll have to pass several teams.

The fact that two teams that will presumably be fighting for the eighth playoff spot in the west are now weaker, helps the Blazers immeasurably. And training camp is still months away.

Last year, 42 wins got Golden State a playoff berth. 42 wins is not out of the question for Portland albeit it might be a little high. The fact remains that young teams just struggle to win games...particularly late in the season when the wear and tear on the body takes its toll.

But these two off-season happenings have undoubtedly strengthened Portland's stature in the west and makes the playoffs even that much more of a possibility.

Blog Update

2007-07-31T10:58:00.000-05:00

With Blazers news hard to come by, we are going to fill the void by posting about other sports, notably college football and the Oregon Ducks. We'll also comment on other sports stories that are relevant but it will most likely be West Coast centric and even Northwest specific. With that in mind, I'd like to comment on the Pac-10 possibly leaving the BCS:

Commissioner Tom Hansen says that if college football adopts the plus one model the Pac-10 will leave the BCS "no question." I'm hopeful that this is just posturing on Hansen's part but this is ludicrous for several reasons.

1. The Pac-10 is not the SEC. The Pac-10 is essentially USC and nine others. If this happens, I guarantee USC leaves the conference and becomes an independant and the Pac-10 dissolves as a conference not long after.

2. If this was the SEC the football powers that be might listen. The SEC is easily the best conference in college football, produces huge ratings and produces dozens of NFL players each year. The Pac-10 doesn't have the depth or talent that the SEC does. The Pac-10's talent is in their coaches who are innovative and creative offensively.

3. The Rose Bowl ceased to be "traditional" years ago. True, it's still played on New Year's Day but the game has involved a Pac-10 and Big-10 school just three times since 2001. It's time to progress and buy into what the whole world wants to see.

The Pac-10 has tried to remain as traditional as possible. They have balked at adding members and splitting into a North and South. They don't play a conference championship game. They now play each team in football, something that no other big time conference does. In basketball they still play each team twice, once at home and once on the road for a total of 18 conference games. They also still play on the tradtional nights of Thursday and Saturdays with only a few exceptions. You rarely (if ever) see a Pac-10 team playing on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday nights.

As a fan of the more traditional approach, I understand what the Pac-10 is thinking. However I think Hansen's stance is misguided and wrong. The Plus 1 model is actually a worthwhile investment for college football. It gives us a small playoff without getting into the logistics of an eight or 16 team playoff.

The Pac-10 would be wise not to bite the hand that feeds it, and continue to feast off USC in football and UCLA in basketball...as sad as it is to admit.

The New Eastern Conference Favorites?

2007-07-30T12:13:00.000-05:00

If this proposed deal goes through, the Boston Celtics have certainly joined the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. They might have mortgaged the future to do so, but in the immediate future, say, the next two or three years, they've become extremely relevant.

Landing Garnett to team with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen gives Boston three superstars, including two in Pierce and Garnett who are still among the top at their positions. Ray Allen continues to be a good scorer and excellent shooter, capable of putting up big numbers.

I like that Boston is attempting a run at the Eastern crown. The (L)eastern conference has played the doormat to the Western Conference for too long and some balance would do the league some good. As would some good publicity for a change.

But, is it enough to get them to the finals and contend? Absolutely it is. For the next two to three years while KG and Pierce continue in their primes and Allen continues to be a very good NBA player, Boston has enough to challenge everyone in the East. The question is, have the Eastern contenders improved at all?

For the defending eastern conference champs, they haven't improved their roster at all. Lebron is still Lebron but as evidenced by the San Antonio massacre, he can't do it alone. Zydrunas Illgauskus, Drew Gooden and Boobie Gibson aren't enough. How could that team compete with a trio like Boston's?

Some say Detroit needs to blow it up and start again. I disagree, they're still talented enough to contend because their perimeter is still solid and 'Sheed would be a good matchup for KG. A Detroit/Boston final is a distinct possibility.

Despite having Dwayne Wade, Miami is in trouble. Their key players are getting older or aren't that good. Shaq can't dominate the way he used to and now that the refs will be scrutinized to no end (even more than they were in the '07 playoffs) Dwayne Wade will not draw a foul every time someone looks at him. His forays to the rim will not end with a whistle with every moan or arm flail as they have in the past.

It all adds up to a good chance for Boston to make a run. True, they've sold the future to make a run now but when the fan base is threatening a mutiny, you have to at least attempt to get better. Danny Ainge has done that and now he can rest a little easier having essentially traded Brandon Roy for Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff because those two helped him later land KG (if the deal goes through).

Of course, Doc Rivers still coaches the Celts and if you read certain writers, they'll tell you he is a grease fire. So having three great players might not do a bit of good. Only time will tell but for the first time in several years, things are looking up in Boston.

--------------------------UPDATE-------------------------
Truehoop is reporting that now Al Jefferson may not be included in the deal. If this is the case, Boston looks like the definitive favorite in the East in my mind. A lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson and KG would be formidable for the whole league, not just the East.

Tim Donaghy - Dirty Ref

2007-07-20T16:11:00.001-05:00

Tim Donaghy, the NBA referee under investigation by the FBI for influencing the point spread of basketball games he officiated, is the same referee that engaged in a post-game shouting match with Rasheed Wallace a few years back. That incident led to a 7-game suspension for Sheed, and another black eye for the Portland franchise. As I recall, Sheed claimed Donaghy instigated the argument. Maybe we should have listened to him.

Non-Blazer Summer League Evaluations

2007-07-20T08:59:00.000-05:00

After returning from Vegas and getting back into some semblance of a routine, here are my non-Blazer Summer League evaluations.

Kevin Durant – Truly an exciting player despite a poor shooting performance. He’s a scary offensive player for the defense because he’s a deadly shooter. I think in Vegas he forced some shots, settled for outside jumpers and didn’t force the issue too much. I think when he adds some bulk you’ll see him attack the rim more because he’ll be more durable. I also think Seattle didn’t do a good job utilizing him in the halfcourt set. They ran him off horizontal screens at the foul line towards the wing creating a tough passing angle from the top, allowing his defender to easily deny him the ball and knock away passes. I think they should have put him on the block and had a post player screen down for him and allow him to read the defender. He would have had about four or five options coming off the screen. Or they could have put him in the corner and done the same kind of thing. He will be a superduper star in no time…if he's not already.

Jeff Green – He was as aggressive on Sunday evening against Portland as I’ve ever seen and really showcased his abilities. He attacked the glass off the dribble, used his jumper effectively and showed his all-around abilities. This was as good as I’ve seen him play. Georgetown’s offensive scheme wasn’t conducive to individuality (Princeton-type offenses are predicated on backcutting and unselfishness) and Green probably suffered from that slightly. He finished the summer league with authority and should team with Kevin Durant to make one of the most devastating and powerful perimeter combos in the league for the next 10-15 years.

Corey Brewer – I really liked Brewer the two times I saw him. He’s an exceptional athlete and did several things well. He showed an ability to attack the rim (even though a couple of times he resorted to circus/lucky shots to finish) and a good outside jumper. Defensively he played well, going against Rudy Gay in the Memphis game. Gay made some great shots against Brewer on his way to 26 points. He also got into the middle and fed the big guys well. I would have loved to get Brewer in Portland to let Jack, Roy, Brewer, Aldridge and Oden grow together for the next 15 years. That would have been a sweet lineup. I think Minnesota got a nice pickup there.

Randy Foye – Had an exceptional summer league and was a deadly shooter. For some reason Memphis went underneath the ball screens and Foye lit them up. Mike Conley repeatedly went underneath the ball screens and Foye had 28 points on 12-17 shooting…many of which were from the perimeter. Foye was Minnesota’s second leading scorer and shot a ridiculous 53% from the three point arc. Don’t ask me why Memphis continually went under the screens rather than hedging and making Foye give the ball up.

Mike Conley – The knock on him coming in was his shooting and that still holds true. Shot poorly (39.8%) from the field and averaged 11.4 points per game. He’s jet quick and does a great job getting into the middle. He’s a great athlete and I like how he stays under control around the rim by coming off a two-foot jump stop. This allows him to be strong around the rim…even though he didn’t finish as well as he did at OSU - but I think that will come. His perimeter shooting was atrocious and this comes from a Conley fan. He was huge for Ohio State last year and I think he’s a great pick for Memphis.

Aaron Brooks – He had an incredible summer league. Easily one of the quickest players in the league and continues to impress with his shooting. Still needs to work on not fading on his pull up threes (it’s tough because he’s so quick that his momentum carries him to the side on his pull up jumpers). I think he’ll fit in with Houston right away and I know T-Mac will demand the ball, but I think “D’s” will have to respect Brooks and his abilities to penetrate. He also excels at flip shots and scoop shots in the paint (at barely 6-0 he needs to be) which makes him a better finisher than people may think. There were countless times in Vegas when Brooks would probe the defense on the dribble and create a wideopen shot on the perimeter without even a screen set. Steve Novak was a primary beneficiary of Brooks’ penetration.

Oleksiy Pecherov – In the first game we watched of the summer league, we were making fun of Pecherov for being ugly. Moments later our jaws hit the floor when he caught the ball out high and like a flash attacked the rim and got an easy lay-up. The fact that he’s listed at 7-0 impressed us even more because he moved like a small forward. He went on to finish with 26 points and 14 boards in that game. He also hit 3-5 from the three-point line which impressed me as well. Pecherov appeared to be reasonably quick with a good skillset. He’s a prospect I will be interested in seeing in the next few years.

Javaris Crittenton – He was known as an erratic player at Georgia Tech but I thought he had a good summer league. He led a sorry Lakers club in scoring and showed no problems putting up a ton of shots. He teamed with Jordan Farmer to form a pretty good backcourt duo. There were many times that Crittenton split the defense on high screens to get into the lane freeing up jump shooters and the low post players. He finished with 28 points, three assists and three turnovers and carried them down the stretch against the Pistons. He finished with 17 points but shot poorly from field and the foul line. He’s a great scorer but unfortunately the Lakers already have someone like that so I’m not sure how he’ll fit in next year.

Email exchange- state of the roster

2007-07-17T18:39:00.000-05:00

Here's the text of an email string between Mark and I. Mark's emails in blue:

Outlaw signed. 3 years, $12 million. No other details. Great price, especially if that 3rd year turns out to be a team option.

Sounds good to me. What is our perimeter looking like now?

1. Jack
2. Blake
3. Sergio
4. Roy
5. Martell
6. Jones
7. Outlaw
8. Green

Am I missing anyone?

The roster is full at 15 guaranteed contracts now. Unless we make another trade, we have:

PG: Jack / Blake / Rodriguez / Green
SG: Roy / Webster
SF: Jones / Outlaw / Miles
PF: Aldridge / Frye / McRoberts
C: Ode-stertag / Pryzbilla / Lafrentz

Freeland, Fernandez and Koponen are in Europe. Ime is gone.

I like that group. It’s a young group for sure but I think it’s a solid group of guys who are of high character and there are some skillsets that will mesh together with some time to grow.

The more I think about it, the more I’m okay with the Blake signing. I think Jon underestimates him slightly and I certainly don’t think he’s a superstar but he can play at this level. I think they envision Jack playing the 1 and the 2 and Roy playing all three. I think there will be times when you see Blake, Jack and Roy out there together because Martell and Travis still have the tendency to float out of it mentally.

I guess Jones is a wildcard because I believe he’s only 26 but my vision of him is some washed up old timer. I don’t know a thing about him only that he didn’t play much at all for Phoenix.

I'm okay with the Blake signing because the 3rd year is a team option. I still don't think we really needed him, but at least it didn't screw up our cap space. My only concern is that Jack is the kind of guy who plays better if he's not looking over his shoulder and worrying about his minutes getting stolen. That seems to be a huge problem for Ridnour in Seattle. Otherwise, I'm fine with the signing. Blake is a high character guy who will work hard and bring some leadership, and he's a better 3-point shooter than Jack. The depth will be nice, because I wouldn't want to give big minutes to Sergio if Jack got hurt. I could see us using Jack and Blake to close out games - both those guys probably have a little better mental toughness than Travis or James Jones.

Remember when Walt Williams played for Portland? That's what Jones reminds me of. Decent sized 3-point specialist, looks kind of awkward running the floor. Not terrible, but not really great either. Can play 20 or 30 minutes without really hurting your team. He'll occasionally block a shot. He's a reasonably priced stop-gap for two years until Travis or Martell develop or we sign a big free agent.

Our roster is now almost entirely devoid of idiots. Miles needs to retire.

Blazers Sign Outlaw

2007-07-17T17:31:00.000-05:00

Travis Outlaw re-signed with the Blazers for approximately $12 million over 3 seasons. No word yet on whether the final year is a team option. Either way, I think this is a fantastic signing, especially considering the kind of money Jason Kapono made this offseason.

The Blazers' Point Guard Situation - Who Will Be Traded?

2007-07-17T13:38:00.000-05:00

Jarret Jack started 79 games for the Blazers last season, averaging 12 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 45% from the field. Jack is 23 years old, and last season was his second in the NBA.

Jack's backup was 21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez, who the Blazers drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft. Sergio showed some potential as a rookie, and has become a fan favorite.

Late in the first round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers traded up to draft Peteri Koponen, a young Finnish point guard. Koponen had a decent showing in summer league, playing primarily off the ball because the summer league roster was loaded with point guards. He's probably a better shooter than Jack or Sergio. The Blazers will keep Koponen in Europe for at least another year.

In the second round of the 2007 draft, the Blazers selected Taurean Green, a smallish point guard and two-time national champion at Florida. Green was scrappy in summer league, and shot the ball well from deep. However, his passing, ability to run an NBA team, and defensive quickness are all suspect. Despite these flaws, the Blazers have reportedly signed Green to a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season.

Apparently feeling that four point guards weren't enough, last weekend the Blazers signed Steve Blake to a 2-year contract with a team option for the 3rd year.

Although Pritchard has indicated that Jack may see some minutes at the off guard position, and Koponen will spend next season in Europe, I find it hard to believe the Blazers want to carry four point guards next year. I also think it's unlikely that all three of Jack, Sergio and Blake factor into the team's long-term plan. Pritchard may have a plan, but to me this situation looks like a big mess. A trade seems probable.

I think Jarrett Jack has the highest trade value of any of our point guards. Subjectivly measuring the trade value of the league's point guards based on production, age, character and salary, I'd rank them something like this:

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Steve Nash
4. Gilbert Arenas
5. Tony Parker
6. Jason Kidd
7. Chauncey Billups
8. Kirk Hinrich
9. Baron Davis
10. Mike Conley
11. TJ Ford
12. Raymond Felton
13. Jason Terry
14. Andre Miller
15. Mo Williams
16. Acie Law
17. Mike Bibby
18. Randy Foye
19. Stephon Marbury

Jarrett Jack falls in somewhere around #20-24, in a group that includes Luke Ridnour, Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon and maybe Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo.

There are around 7 teams for whom Jack would be a significant upgrade at point guard:
1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Miami (Williams is aging and oft-injured)
4. LA Clippers
5. LA Lakers (unless Crittenton turns out to be good)
6. Denver
7. Indiana

Plus a few others that have mediocre or unproven talent:
1. Atlanta
2. Houston
3. Boston
4. Minnesota
5. Seattle

So there are at least a handful of teams out there who should be willing to part with something of value to get Jack.

It's more difficult to measure Sergio's trade value. There were allegedly inquiries about him from multiple teams last season. Some enthusiastic Blazer fans think he's the next Steve Nash. After watching him in summer league, I'd take the first decent offer that came along. Sergio makes some highlight-quality plays, but he can't shoot, he doesn't play good defense, and his decision-making in the half court is often questionable. In the summer league game against the Suns, he made very poor decisions on two plays late in the game. On the first, after Sergio launched a long jumper from the top of the circle and Phoenix grabbed the long rebound, Sergio's man took off down the floor. Instead of hustling back to prevent the layup, Sergio ran forward to try for a steal - and was unsuccessful. On another possession late in the game, Sergio dribbled the shot clock down under 5 seconds and, instead of penetrating or entering the ball into the post, launched a step-back jumper, which he missed. These type of mental errors are costly. With his lack of athleticism and shooting ability, Sergio will have to become a flawless decision-maker if he's going to be a quality starting point guard. I'm not sure he's going to get there.

Blake, Koponen and Green have little to no trade value. Green and Koponen were late draft picks, and didn't blow anybody away in summer league. If anybody really wanted Blake, they could have offered him the MLE.

So I'm looking for Jack or Sergio to be moved, if not before the season, then at least within the next year. One incentive for the Blazers to get rid of Jack is that his contract expires in 2009. If he's the starting point guard, he's going to command a contract in the $6-$8 million range. Even as an unsigned free agent, he would count for around $6 million against the Blazers' cap that summer. Sergio will still be on his rookie contract in 2009, and will only use $1.9 million of cap space. Steve Blake's team option could be declined in order to preserve cap space.

Vegas! Part Deux

2007-07-17T10:38:00.001-05:00

Yes we've returned from Vegas and assimilating back into the real world has been difficult. I arrived home at 3:30am on Monday only to find my 3-yr old in my spot in bed. I squeezed my way into bed for a quick rest before work. However my 10-month old had other ideas and woke up around 5:00am ready to play. He had some breakfast and was ready for the world...I was not though.

Then last night, he woke up again, this time at 2:15 and stayed awake until about 4:30 (as did I) before falling asleep. I've been at work both days, physically anyway, but my brain is tapioca and several people have commented on my barely opened, extremely bloodshot eyes. I do not look good.

But the trip to Vegas was fun. We met up with old friends and had a good time watching and playing basketball and cheaply gambling a small chunk of our paychecks away.

Here are some of the non-NBA summer league highlights:

Pierre Lawrence - our buddy Kevin (a non-drinker, non-smoker, father of two little girls) was approached by the quintessential Vegas chick on Thursday night. She had tight pants, a tight, low-cut shirt, a cigarette in one hand and one of those giant fruity drinks in the novelty cups in the other. She asked Kevin if his name was Pierre from the Mirage. Jon laughed directly into her face and I claimed that his name was Jacque but thus, Pierre Lawrence was born at the Stratosphere.

Bill Russell's minivan. I don't know why this tickled me so much but to see one of the NBA's all time greats parked in a modest minivan right next to me in a near-empty parking lot is something I won't soon forget. Russell seemed like a fun guy, he spent most of the game laughing and joking with his friend and wife while watching the Celts. I'm dying to know what was on the radio in his minivan.

Travel nightmares - all of us had trouble arriving and leaving Vegas. My flight out of Portland was delayed for an hour and a half because of a thunder and lightning storm directly over PDX. I was originally supposed to arrive into Vegas a little after 1:00am but didn't get there until after 2:00. Matt nearly missed his flight from Eugene because the flight from Phoenix to Eugene was 3 hours late. He finally arrived at the Stratosphere around 3:15am. Both Jon and Kevin/Pierre were delayed leaving Dallas and Tulsa respectively. Returning to our homes was brutal but again, Matt had the worst of it. His plane was just about ready to leave when it blew a tire all over the runway and had to return to the tarmac. The debris on the runway caused a backup of jets including mine, delaying my takeoff by about 40 minutes (I was already 30 minutes delayed leaving so this put me a good hour and 15 minutes behind schedule). I finally took off and arrived into Portland at about 2:45 and arrived home about 3:30. Sadly, Matt's flight did not leave and he was forced to stay another night in Vegas and arrived at his hotel at 3:30am. On a positive note, he did get to talk with Joel "Lunch Bucket" Freeland who was hopeful of playing for Portland but not optimistic after an underwhelming summer league.

Our intense games of 2 on 2 on Friday. And by intense I mean lazy and foul-ridden with missed shots galore. It was fun and we wore each other out. My wife has taken to calling me Uncle Rico after the uncle in Napolean Dynamite whom claims his high school football team could have taken state had the coach played him at quarterback. I must admit, some of the similarities are there.

Robert Swift looks like he got lost on his way to Lollapalooza 1996. He has a gnatty red ponytail, tattoos covering most of his arms and holes in his face from all the piercings. He just looks slightly out of place on an NBA bench.

I got $20 up on $2 roulette but lost it all within an hour. It was fun and infinitely more enjoyable pressing buttons on a slot machine and losing money, $0.5 at a time.
I loved the set up of gyms in Vegas. Despite the fact that the Thomas and Mack Center stairs were a nightmare to scale (Bill Russell had no problems getting up them but I did) the set up allowed visitors to easily go from gym to gym during timeouts, halftimes and blowouts. The staggered starts meant that when one game finished you could bolt over to the other gym to catch the last quarter of the other game. When that game finished you could back over to the other gym in time to catch the start of that game.

I will be back with some player/team evaluations later.

VEGAS!

2007-07-16T13:34:00.000-05:00

We're back from our Vegas trip, during which we failed to enter a single blog post. We had a good time, and caught our fill of summer league action. A few non-performance-related highlights:

- Bill Russell drives a minivan. During the Seattle game on Friday, we sat about six seats away from the great Bill Russell. We didn't try to talk to him, but Mark snapped a picture of him exiting the stands after the game (see below). When we returned to our car after the game, Russell was sitting in the driver's seat of the vehicle next to us - a somewhat shabby-looking Toyota minivan. I gave him a wave, which he did not reciprocate. A middle-aged white guy hopped in Russell's passenger seat, and they pulled out.

- LeBron James sat courtside at the same game on Friday. In stark contrast to Russell, LeBron had a full 5-member posse, and exited the game through the tunnel rather than fight through the crowds. I overheard a young autograph-seeker later saying that LeBron had walked through the lobby at some point, but was so fully surrounded by posse members that the kids couldn't get near him.

- Chris Mullin was sitting 15 or 20 rows up from us on Friday, near the aisle where he was easily accessible to fans. As we exited the arena, Mullin was in a conversation with some front-office-type guy that I didn't recognize. This did not deter a random middle-aged man wearing a fanny pack. Fanny Pack shoved his head in to Mullin's conversation and announced: "Mr. Mullin! Mr. Mullin! I used to carry your bags at the Westin!" To his credit, Mullin handled the situation quite graciously, and feigned some interest in Fanny Pack's story.

- Daniel Artest, Ron's little brother, played for the Kings' summer league squad. We sat directly behind the King's bench on Saturday during the Kings/Rockets game. I couldn't stop watching Artest during warmups and time-outs (unfortunately, he never made it into the game). His face looks strikingly similar to Ron's, only fatter. His physique is like a shorter Tractor Traylor. Daniel Artest would have looked out of place in the layup line of a Division-1 college team. His presence on an NBA roster (even summer league) was ridiculous. He missed just about every shot he put up during warm-ups (although he worked harder than anyone else on the floor, breaking a substantial sweat). He did manage a two-hand dunk off of two feet with no run-up, no small feat for a guy his size. Artest was enthusiastic during time-outs, shouting the loudest "defense" of anyone on the team as the huddle broke. If the fat guy from the And-1 tour (Escalade is his nickname - I had to do a bit of research there) were to retire, I could see Artest making a run at that job.

-The woman sitting a few seats down from me let out a scream of pure joy when the Blazers finally defeated the Suns on Saturday. I watched several of these summer league games without once thinking to look at the scoreboard. The outcome of summer league games is, in my mind, absolutely meaningless. The same woman made repeated attempts to present Sergio "Spanish Chocolate" Rodriguez with a gift of red, black and silver M&Ms she had special ordered for him. At one point she cornered LaMarcus Aldridge (not in uniform Saturday), who agreed to give them to Sergio. Some Blazer staffer took the M&Ms to the locker room after the game.

Impact of the Steve Francis Buy-Out

2007-07-11T17:32:00.000-05:00

The Blazers bought out Steve Francis, allegedly for around $30 million. Some Blazer fans are mad because (a) the Blazers didn't manage to talk Francis down very much, and (b) $30 million is a ton of money to pay somebody to play against the Blazers. I can't really refute either of these arguments, but it looks to me like the Blazers really didn't want Z-Bo or Steve Francis anywhere near the team next year.

Here is my calculation of how the Francis buy-out will affect the Blazers' salary cap:

Francis was owed $33.6 million over the next two years. I'll estimate the buy-out amount to be $30.5 million. The $30.5 million will hit our cap in the next two seasons in the same proportion Francis' salary would have been paid under his contract - around 48.8% this year and 51.2% next year. But we also get a set-off for his new contract. If Francis signs with the Clippers for $6 million for two years, the Blazers' cap liability will be reduced in each of the next two seasons by 50% of ($3 million minus the league minimum salary). This probably works out to about $1.1 million in cap reduction for each of the next two seasons. So Francis will hit Portland's cap for approximately $13.8 million in 2007-08 and $14.5 million in 2008-09.

The buy-out saves the Blazers at least $5 million over the next two years, and possibly as much as $10 million (because of luxury tax), depending on the Blazers' final cap figure. There is no chance that the Blazers will get under the cap before 2009, but Paul Allen saves a few bucks.

Jason Quick had a note in his blog that Portland has negotiated a 50% offset on Francis. I'm not sure what this means... but perhaps the Blazers are going to get a slightly larger offset than the one I calculated.

Greg Oden to shut it down

2007-07-10T13:09:00.000-05:00

As it's been reported by several outlets, Greg Oden has decided to shut it down for the summer and get that much needed tonsillectomy. I'm disappointed that we won't get to see him in Vegas but I can't blame him. I think the tonsils and fatigue have taken a huge toll on him as evidenced by his play in the first two games. If you read Jason Quick's summer league report you get a good view of his tonsil problems.

I think this is a wise move by Portland to shut him down. Let the guy rest for a few weeks and recuperate. He's been going 100 miles an hour for about the past month, flying to Portland, Ohio, New York and elsewhere. We don't need to burn the kid out before he even suits up in a real uniform for Portland.

I'm hoping Greg eats some ice cream, relaxes and gets healthy so he can play at 100% the moment the season starts. We saw glimpses of what he can do but we still have yet to see Oden play at 100% percent. He either had broken wrist or tonsils so swollen that only a passageway "the size of a green grape was evident" (that's some in-depth...and disgusting, reporting by Quick) so there's no reason to push it. That he was even out there is a testiment to his committment and drive. I have a funny feeling that if Zach or Darius had even the sniffles they would have begged out of playing...but not partying in Vegas.

This decision now opens the door for others like Zenden Hamilton (I'm glad I paid $51 bucks to see Zen), Joel Freeland and others.

Can't blame Oden for taking a rest, if anyone has earned a break, it's him.

Summer League Game 2 - player observations

2007-07-09T13:57:00.000-05:00

Martell Webster - His ballhandling is a disaster, and he missed most of his 3s. But I also saw some good things from Martell. He had a couple of athletic steals, plus a near-steal that he booted out of bounds. He had a tremendous offensive rebound and putback - his rebounding was very good again this game. I've been impressed with Martell's effort so far in summer league. On one play, he ran out for a breakaway layup, then sprinted back defensively to contest a shot at the other end. Martell still needs to figure out his role (he will have to get his points by moving without the ball - and maybe by developing a post-up game?), but at least the effort is there.

Greg Oden - Oden's post game is very effective when he can create a shot on his initial lunge toward the basket. If he has to reverse his pivot or fade away, its just ugly. On defense, he has a lot to learn about position. The offensive player can draw a foul on Oden every time by shielding the ball and leaping into him. Oden needs to establish position early to take a charge, or position his body so that there is no contact and take a swipe at the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge is starting to become very adept at this. Oden seems to be a favorite target of the officials so far - he's been called for a ton of cheap fouls, especially on offense. We saw glimpses of the Oden/Aldridge high-low game. This will be devastating in the future.

LaMarcus Aldridge - I'm afraid he's playing too well and won't be available as a sleeper in my fantasy basketball league. Other than that, there's nothing bad to say about this guy. He's been flat-out terrific at both ends of the court.

Sergio Rodriguez - His lack of outside shooting is crippling his game. If he could shoot like JJ Barea, he'd be fantastic. Barea is smaller, slower, and lacks Sergio's wizardry with the ball. But Barea outplayed Sergio because he plays under control and can light it up from the outside.

Joel Freeland - He scored a couple of times. Seems to have a decent skill set for a young big man. We lose a ton of shotblocking and mobility on defense when he checks in.

Josh McRoberts - Is this guy still on the team? I didn't notice him at all this game.

Taurean Green- an unimpressive outing for a guy fighting to make the roster. He turned the ball over too much and didn't shoot well.

Terrance Green- He actually got on the court near the end of the game. Terrance was my teammate for a week at Rip City Hoop Camp in Portland in 1993 or '94. Our team won the camp championship.

Summer League Game 2 - Observations

2007-07-09T10:00:00.000-05:00

Greg Oden's second game was quite a bit better than his first. 13 points, five boards, four blocks and "only" nine fouls. Oden is obviously tired and out of shape but still managed a few ohmygosh moments, including a ferocious dunk over Pops Mensah-Bonsu where he drew is first NBA "T" for hanging on the rim. I think it was worth it.

Some other points from day 2.

I know that many of the players are trying to earn their way onto rosters, but I have no idea about the refs. Are they training them to be the next generation of officials? All I know is, the third quarter of the Portland/Dallas game was unwatchable because of all the fouls. There was a segment of about four minutes where there was a foul at every end of the floor...and I don't think I'm exaggerating either.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been dynamite in the two games. He runs well, has a great outside shot and just looks tougher all the way around. He's definitely the leader of the summer league team and appears to be responding to the role. I loved his first move of the game yesterday. He caught the ball on the block and swung the ball through about an inch from Mensah-Bonsu's nose. Powered his way into the paint and knocked Mensah-Bonsu off balance and then rose up for about a four foot fadeaway. Unfortunately, he missed the shot, but it was a great move and great shot that just didn't go. I get the feeling the Aldridge is just scratching the surface of his abilities
The Blazers offense reminds me of the Mo Cheeks coached/Damon Stoudamire run teams of a few years back. So many high screens, so little action for anyone else. Aldridge and Oden are great screeners and Sergio Rodriguez is quick, but I'd like to see Portland do more of the high low action with Aldridge high looking for Oden low. It's unstoppable. If this is the offense that McMillan plans on running, they're better of with Brandon Roy at the point because he makes things happen with good decision making.
I know they only got like a week or so to practice, but I think Portland's coaching staff could have come up with a more imaginative offense. The high screen every time down the floor often wastes a ton of time and Sergio makes a good decision with the pass about 1 out of every 3 trips down the floor. He cannot be counted on to run a team for 35 minutes a night.
Martell Webster, despite the tough looking new 'do, is terrible. One of the worst ballhandler's I've ever seen. Literally has no left hand whatsoever. There was one particularly bad segment in the third quarter when he got the ball on the left hand wing, nearly lost it, bounced away from his defender (sort of), dribbled left and shot a disasterous fadeaway that led to a quick Mavs dunk the other way. Moments later he came off a high screen dribbling left, the post defender showed and Martell instantly lost the ball trying to spin away. The turnover led to another Mavs bucket. He really needs to step up or he could find himself in the "D" league again trying to earn a spot back in Portland or the NBA.
Portland's guard play in general has been terrible. Bad offense, bad defense and bad passing. As I said, Sergio's success to failure ratio is not good and Martell is just so limited on both ends of the floor. Taurean Green has played admirably as the back-up and has not been clearly outplayed by Sergio. The other wings have not impressed me very much. Having Brandon Roy would help considerably...as would the addition of Travis Outlaw.
I think Jarrett Jack should be feeling a lot better about his standing in Portland's rotation after the first two days. For some reason, Portland fan's love Sergio...for no real reason. Fans are dumb sometimes.
Oden and Aldridge are definitely twin towers. Once they figure out how to work together and how to best complement each other...look out. They're both long and I think they're both very committed to basketball, winning and excellence. Those three things alone will take them far in this league.
Oden is raw offensively. He'll rely on brute force and strength for much of his points early in his career. He's more Shaq than Tim Duncan in that regard. I'm hopeful that his post moves develop and he learns some counters to defensive positioning. He had a couple of ferocious dunks yesterday but probably the most impressive move was when he caught the ball no the left block, took a dribble to the middle, faked like he was going to spin towards the baseline and then finished a pretty left-handed jump hook. That the move was against Nick Fazekas is not lost on me but still, it was a very promising move.

Oden a Bust? - First Summer League Game Observations

2007-07-07T16:43:00.000-05:00

Greg Oden managed 6 points and 10 fouls in his Blazer debut. As much as he sucked last night, I'm not too worried. He's got four months to get in shape and figure out where he needs to be on the court before opening day. Even with his current conditioning, I think he'll be much better in subsequent summer league games. Last night did make me think it will probably take a season or two before he becomes a truly dominant force.

LaMarcus Aldridge, however, is already a dominant force. He blocks shots, rebounds, runs the floor, shoots outside, and finishes in the paint. Aldridge blocked more shots last night than Zach Randolph did in the months of January and February combined last season. I found it interesting that Aldridge matched up with Glen Davis much of the night. Aldridge was heavily criticized leading up to the 2006 draft for his poor shooting performance against Davis and LSU in the NCAA tournament. Aldridge had no problem scoring on Davis last night. He scored repeatedly just by beating everybody down the court for a layup, and his mid-range jumper was deadly.

Martell Webster impressed me last night - although not with his offense. He struggled with his shot much of the night. But he seemed to be giving a nice effort at the defensive end, and he rebounded aggressively. His most impressive moment on offense was an authoritative but unsuccessful dunk attempt. I think it's time for Webster to give up on living up to his status as the #6 overall pick and focus on becoming a deadly spot-up shooter and a tough defender. He doesn't have the quickness to take anybody off the dribble. But if he embraces his role, he could be an effective contributor.

Sergio Rodriguez looked just like he did last season. Spectacular at times, but sloppy and out-of-control much of the game. Jarrett Jack's job is very safe at this point.

Taurean Green is athletic. I think he'll make the roster - and has a good chance to stick as a 3rd-string point guard in the League.

Oden & Durant - Busts?

2007-07-07T13:23:00.000-05:00

No chance. But Greg Oden and Kevin Durant had unimpressive debuts yesterday and in the case of Oden, it was disasterous. Granted, it's just summer league so I'm not worried and because as any Blazer fan remembers, Qyntel Woods was once the MVP of this summer league. So it's not a strong indicator of future success or failure.

Oden's debut was probably the most anticipated Portland debut in years. It started off pooly, three fouls in the first four minutes. He went to the bench and never really got into a flow. Management will tell you he's battling a sinus infection and waiting to have tonsils removed. Surely all of the cross-country travel is not helping. I think it's a case of a guy just being worn out and not in shape.

When you look at the last month of his life, he's been on the go constantly. I am not worried about Oden in the slightest. I have a strong feeling we'll see the dominant Oden before this summer is over (hopefully next Saturday and Sunday when we're there to see it).

Durant had 18 points but was just 5-17 from the field but was 7-9 from the foul line. He wasn't very active in other phases, tallying just 1 board and zero assists. I think Durant is going to struggle badly at times this year. He appeared to be susceptible to pressure defense, particularly when he caught the ball out high. When he went into the post or towards the rim, he had a better chance to score.

The thing that discourages me about Durant was his failure to help the team in other phases. No rebounding, no passing or hustle plays. He's a shooter, 100%. I see him being a good spot up shooter and someone who can go post up smaller players. This is what I saw from him Friday night.

Summer League - Live Stream

2007-07-06T12:31:00.000-05:00

Here is the link where you can catch the live webcast of all the Vegas summer league games:

http://www.nba.com/summerleague2007/scoreboard.jsp

It's free, but you have to register.

Western Conference Analysis

2007-07-05T10:11:00.000-05:00

Now appears to be a good time to be a Blazer fan. The bandwagon is quickly refilling so get your spots now. There are several obvious reasons to return to the Blazers, namely:

Greg Oden will be donning a Blazer uni and figures to man the middle for the next 12-15 years.

Kevin Pritchard – A GM short on experience but long on common sense. He worked with San Antonio and they are a model franchise. That’s a solid franchise to learn from.

’06 Draft – The day Pritchard officially turned the franchise around. Eschewing public opinion by avoiding the ‘stache (Adam Morrison), the Blazers instead made a slew of deals and came away with arguably the two best players in the ’06 draft, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. Of course Roy won the rookie of the year and Aldridge began to show glimpses of his ceiling midway through the year before shutting it down with a heart condition that required surgery (this condition will not keep him out of games and he will be on the Vegas Summer League team).

The Western Conference leaders are all getting older

It’s this point I’d like to discuss a little more at length. While the Blazers have been mired in awfulness in the last three years, the Western Conference has dominated the league for what seems like eternity. Really, it’s been two teams, the Lakers and the Spurs. Those two franchises have won seven of the last nine championships and the Lakers were runners up one of those years. So, the western conference has been running the NBA show for the past decade.

So the Blazers were terrible for a few years, gave us the Jail Blazers Era, the Sebastian Telfair era, the Darius Miles/Zach Randolph Era but now, they give us the fearsome foursome era with Oden, Mayor Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Jarrett Jack. These four Blazers will surely take Portland back to the top of the Western Conference heap.

Starting with the champions and moving backwards, we can analyze the teams currently ahead of the Blazers and judge if they are moving forward, backward or staying the same. This is long term, over the next four or five years. I cannot possibly take into account things like draft luck, blockbuster deals or prison sentences.

San Antonio – Fourth title in nine years. The most dominant low post player in the game. Quicksilver guards and a very well run organization to boot. In my view, Duncan has another three or four years as the best low post player in the game. Virtually unstoppable right now and I expect him to continue at that level for the next three or four years. After that, I predict that he has another three or four years of being a really good player but not the superstar. The Spurs also have Manu who has four or five peak years left to run with Duncan and then Parker, who is just scratching the surface and discovering his outside shot and leadership abilities. When Duncan loses steam, Parker should be at the peak of his career and look for Popovich to adjust the offense slightly to take advantage of Parker’s quickness.
Verdict – Moving forward – The Spurs are too well run to fall apart at this point. I think they have six to eight more years of being at or near the top of the entire league.

Utah – Sloan has been in Utah ever since I can remember. He thinks he might have found Stockton and Malone version 2.0 in Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams and after a great playoff run, he might be right. At one point, Andrei Kirilenko was one of the games most versatile players. A juggernaut on defense and on the glass, a true utility man with superstar abilities. But something happened. He lost playing time, he played out of position, his wife cried to the papers or something, but now, they’re looking to move him. If I’m Jerry Sloan, I’m trying to find a way to keep Kirilenko because he’s a smart player and does so many things well. It’s tough to find players like that. He does make a fortune though and signing Williams will be priority number one when he’s a free agent. Williams emerged as the best young point guard in the league. Chris Paul is a great player, but until he does what Deron Williams did in the NBA playoffs, I will rate Williams higher.
Verdict – Moving forward – The nucleus of Williams, Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kirlenko is young, versatile and dangerous. If Sloan can keep it all together and get those four to buy into what he’s preached for the last 100 years, Utah should consistently finish near the top of the pack. A true, high scoring wingman would make them super dangerous.

Phoenix –Steve Nash’s back can’t hold up much longer. For some reason Shawn Marion thinks he can be the best player on a good team and Amare Stoudemire had one of the most serious knee surgeries out there. He’s still explosive, but not 40 points per game against San Antonio in the western conference semi’s explosive. Their window is closing and D’Antoni’s system is predicated on Steve Nash and his ability to read defenses and make plays. Leandro Barbosa is a quick point guard but posses neither the brain nor the body control to run the team the way Nash does. Plus, they don’t play defense and can’t get stops when it matters the most. Teams that execute well, like San Antonio, run their offense with too much precision to beat themselves which is essentially what Phoenix is hoping for when playing defense.
Verdict – Moving back – When Nash retires, D’Antoni will have to revamp his system. Marion wants to show his alpha dog stuff and Stoudemire’s knee is and always will be a question.

Golden State – 100% flash in the pan. This team teetered on the brink all year and got hot at the right time. They drew the perfect opponent and Don Nelson lived in Avery Johnson’s head the whole series. So much so that before they even played a game, Johnson was tinkering with his lineup. Dallas won 67 games this year, yet Johnson feels that a 42-40 eight seed can’t be beaten. Ridiculous. Buoyed by a boisterous Golden State crowd, the Warriors pulled the upset against Dallas and regular season MVP Dirk Nowitzki will be seeing visions of Stephen Jackson in his sleep. But when you look at Golden State, they play small ball but it’s a different small ball than Phoenix. They just jack threes. They are dependant upon penetration and kicks and when things are going well, it’s a fun offense. But when legs are tired and shots are off, it’s abysmal. Baron Davis hasn’t proven to be consistent player, despite freakish abilities and Stephen Jackson hasn’t proven that he can avoid prison. Matt Barnes burst onto the scene because he worked hard and collected boards and dunked on some people. He will soon parlay that into a huge deal from someone (probably Boston or New York).
Verdict – Moving back – Nelson has proved adept at turning around organizations. But this is Golden State. They are too unstable physically (Davis) and emotionally (Jackson) to contend on a yearly basis. Plus they just traded away Richardson for Branden Wright who is probably several years away from contributing like Richardson did.

Dallas – Will they blow it up? I say they won’t. They won 67 games and drew the worst possible matchup in the first round. They are lacking some inside scoring and the new NBA allows them to be formidable but not championship caliber yet. Dirk is Dirk and he had a lousy playoff series. He doesn’t like to bang but he’s easily one of the top players in the league. Devin Harris is burgeoning into a good point guard in the mode of Tony Parker. Lightning quick but still discovering his outside shot. When he does that, look out, he will be sensational. Josh Howard is a versatile forward with several different skills. I don’t think the Mavs should blow it up but perhaps if they can snag a good, rugged low post player (Zach Randolph might have helped) it would really help in crunch time.
Verdict – Staying – You don’t win 67 games without being good. Avery Johnson essentially told the team before the series, “You are not good enough to win so I have to make adjustments.” Absolutely stupid coaching move. For a team that nearly won a championship a year ago, blowing the thing up is a bad idea. Make a few adjustments, but don’t blow it up.

Houston – A very good big man teamed with an electrifying, dangerous and high scoring wing so why can’t this team win a playoff series? Could it be that they start Chuck Hayes at a forward and a former street baller at the point? This team is interesting because they have some pieces, arguably two of the best at their respective positions, but the rest of the lineup is unimpressive. They’ll need to upgrade several positions or risk plummeting in the standings. Two players are not enough to contend for a title.
Verdict – Staying or Moving back – Yao and McGrady aren’t getting younger, so Houston should consider making a move ASAP. Teams like Portland, Utah, and Seattle could be on their way up, while teams like San Antonio and Dallas aren’t going anywhere soon. Make a move or they’re out of the playoffs.

LA Lakers – Will this Kobe crap ever stop? The guy chased Shaq out of town but now he’s critical of the front office because the guys they brought in aren’t good enough. Had Shaq and Kobe put aside their egos, they probably could have won a couple more titles but as it is, they hung their hat on Kobe and it’s led to two first round exits. Long term, this franchise is not going anywhere. Kobe is getting older and is obviously somewhat of a cancer. What free agent would want to play with him? Not many. Kevin Garnett may be the only exception to this rule though. If any superstar would be happy being the second gunman, it would be KG. Bringing in KG would mean trading Bynum, Odom and other crap which isn’t a big deal but it would make them contenders for the next few years. Still, long term, KG and Kobe don’t have enough peak years left to overtake the current conference elite.
Verdict – Moving back – No KG in LA yet so it could get ugly in LA. Phil Jackson didn’t come to LA to lose, which he’s doing and Kobe has to be learning that he can’t do it on his own…even though he was dead certain he could. They have to get better and fast, but their window is closing…particularly if Garnett goes elsewhere.

Denver – How long can the Carmelo Anthony/Allen Iverson marriage last? When things are going well, I can see it working. But the moment something bad happens, a five game losing streak or one guy looking off the other and forcing a shot I can see things imploding. There’s some role guys in place but can two of the highest scoring players in the league really co-exist peacefully. My gut says no and I think I’ll be right. Iverson is at the tail end of his career and amazingly, his body hasn’t broken down yet. But he can’t keep playing at this level for ever. Anthony is just beginning his rise. Denver is another team that has to do something to keep up. I think it’s too volatile of a situation to last and turn into something great. Really, KG is the only superstar content to be a #2. And for the most part, every team needs a clear cut Batman and a clear cut Robin. Denver has two Batman’s and Steve Blake…not good.
Verdict – Staying…at best – Things could get ugly quick in Denver. Once The Joker Steve Blake signs with Portland, they’re in huge trouble. Things could explode and explode spectacularly in Denver. Or they could fizzle out and lose in the first round yet again. All in all, it’s not a team built for the long haul although they do have the consummate hammer scorer in Anthony. If they put some pieces around him, look out. But they haven’t done that and haven’t shown any signs that they’re going to, so I’ll say they’re staying.

The Blazers are moving forward…and fast. They won 11 more games last year than the year before, and that was with many of their best players missing games at various points of the season. Roy missed 20+ early in the season. Zach missed the end of the year. Pryzbilla took some mysterious knee to the pills and missed a ton of time. LaMarcus had that scary heart condition that appears to be rectified. So in short, Portland had four of its top players miss serious time with injuries yet still improved by 11 games. In fact, in a late season game against Houston, when the Rockets were readying for their playoff run, the Blazers nearly beat them with a lineup of Dan Dickau, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, and Luke Schenscher. That’s four D-Leaguers and a rookie of the year.

Replace the D-Leaguers with legitimate NBA players which Jarrett Jack, Greg Oden, and LaMarcus Aldridge are, you’ve got a pretty good squad. In two or three years, you have a championship contender.

Canzano Response

2007-07-04T21:05:00.001-05:00

I emailed John Canzano yesterday pointing out that Miles' contract doesn't expire until 2010. Here's his response:

J: Francis' contract, not Miles, comes off that year. The cap space remains the same. They'll have between $12 and 24 million, depending on what they decide todo. Thanks for being a careful reader.
JC

Although he admits he's wrong about Miles' contract, he denies that it affects our cap space in 09. I don't see how the cap space remains the same if you add a $9 million contract to the payroll. Either we get rid of Miles' contract, or we have a lot less cap space than Canzano says.

Blazers Salary Cap Analysis

2007-07-03T14:02:00.000-05:00

John Canzano says this of the Z-Bo/Steve Francis trade:

"The rub goes like this... Portland will have between $12-24 million in cap space two years from now because of this deal."
http://blog.oregonlive.com/johncanzano/

Upon analysis, that figure seems wildly optimistic. Last year's salary cap was $53 million. Factoring in a decent annual increase, let's say the 2009/2010 cap will be $60 million.

--------------------Update------------------------------------
Canzano's column today says Darius Miles' contract expires in 2009. Every other source I can find says it runs until 2010. This is likely the cause of Canzano's exaggerated cap space figure.
------------------------------------------------------------

The Blazers who will be under contract, (assuming team options are exercised) for 2009-2010 are:

Darius Miles: 9
Joel Przybilla: 6.9
LaMarcus Aldridge: 5.9
Sergio Rodriguez: 1.9
Greg Oden: 6.3
Brandon Roy: 3.9
Rudy Fernandez 1.7

Total Salary: $35.6 million

Pritchard has announced his intention to match any offers for Travis Outlaw. Travis is likely to be offered the full mid-level exception by someone, so I'll pencil him in for $6 million in '09/10.

Total Salary: $41.6 million

This is only 8 players, so now I'll fill in some roster spots with cheap contracts (bench point guard and power forward, 1st round pick from 08 or 09 draft (salaries estimated)):

McRoberts or Freeland: 1.5
Green or Koponen: 1.6
1st rounder: 1.2

Now the Blazers have 11 players and a payroll of $45.9 million. Let's assume Raef, Ime and James Jones are gone. Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster and Channing Frye all expire in '09. If Portland re-signs just one of them for $6 million and lets the other two walk, payroll is close to $52 million. Throw in a couple of minimum contracts, and it's up to $53 million. That would put the Blazers just $7 million under a $60 million cap.

So, unless the Blazers are willing to let a lot of young talent walk away, I don't think they'll have the massive cap space Canzano envisions.

Some ways the Blazers could reduce payroll:

-Darius Miles could be traded for a shorter contract or retire due to injury (ideal scenario).
-They could let Outlaw walk this year, and instead sign Ime Udoka to a 2-year deal.
- They could let Jack, Webster and Frye walk after the 08/09 season.
- They could package Joel Pryzbilla with Jack/Webster/Frye/Outlaw/future picks for an expiring contract prior to the '09 trade deadline.

Even if the Blazers don't manage to free up cap space, they could acquire a big contract in '09 by trading Lafrentz' expiring contract plus young players and/or picks.

I've made a lot of assumptions and estimates in these projections. My salary figures are based on the rookie salary scale, the number posted here: http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm, and where indicated, pure conjecture.

Free Agent Updates and Speculation

2007-07-03T09:39:00.001-05:00

Rashard Lewis is reportedly headed to Orlando for a max deal, likely worth $15 - 16 million a year. I thought Lewis would have been a very nice fit for the Blazers, but that was never realistic. Seattle would have had to sign-and-trade him to Portland (a division rival) for marginal value and a big contract in return. By letting Lewis walk, Seattle gets no compensation, but drops a ton of salary off its books. With the franchise in limbo as to which city it will land in, letting Lewis walk was the smart financial move.

Free agents are commanding a high price this off-season. Lewis is a very good player, but without some additional help I don't think he makes Orlando a contender.

Jason Kapono scored $5 million a year from the Raptors. Luke Walton got a similar deal from the Lakers. Steve Blake is said to be seeking a deal in the upper range of the mid-level exception, and he'll probably get it. If you need veteran point guard help, there isn't much out there.

Gerald Wallace will likely cost a team $10 million/year or more. If management decides he's worth it, I'm not convinced the Blazers have the right assets to entice Charlotte into a sign-and-trade. Perhaps some combination Webster, Outlaw and one of our point guards?

Although signing an expensive free agent like Wallace would kill the Blazers' 09 cap space, it wouldn't be management's last chance to improve the team down the road. Raef Lafrentz (expiring in '09) or Darius Miles (expiring in '10) could be used in a package late in those seasons to land a highly-paid veteran.

McRoberts Signs 2-year Deal

2007-07-02T18:39:00.001-05:00

...according to his mom, according to Indystar.com.

No details given - I suspect this could be a one-year deal with a team option for a second year. This signing is not a big surprise. I think everybody feels like we got a great deal picking McRoberts up in the second round, and there was no reason to think he wouldn't be on the roster this year.

Video Links

2007-07-02T10:12:00.000-05:00

Stephon Marbury is excited about Z-Bo. He says the Knicks got younger and "youthier".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYY338_JgvI

Summer league practice has begun. Some good interviews in this clip. Interesting quote from Aldridge: "we had some guys in the past that wasn't (sic) really fun to be around." I don't think he's referring to Fred Jones or Dan Dickau here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8B0heT301xM

Gerald Wallace

2007-07-01T22:52:00.000-05:00

The Blazers are one of several teams being mentioned as interested in signing Gerald Wallace. Wallace, who turns 25 later this month, has put up tremendous numbers the last two years for the miserable Bobcats, including over 2 steals a game. He can't shoot outside, but he's maniacal attacking the basket. He's missed significant time due to injury in each of the last three seasons. Wallace is likely to command around $10 million a season, and the Bobcats have expressed an intent to re-sign him. The Blazers would have to put together a sign-and-trade package to make anything happen.

Wallace would be a big upgrade for Portland at the small forward spot. A lineup of Jack/Roy/Wallace/Aldridge/Oden could be devastating defensively, but would lack perimeter shooting.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2922746

Vegas Summer League Tickets - 50% off

2007-07-01T22:44:00.000-05:00

If you're planning to be in Vegas to see the Blazers summer league squad, use the promo code GENA to get your tickets 50% off. It took me a little digging to figure out how to use the code, so I'm posting the direct link below:

http://ev2.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ExecMacro/evenue/ev68/se/DisplayPromoList.d2w/report?linkID=unlv&RSRC=&RDAT=&caller=PR

I hope to see a good contingent of Blazer fans in Vegas. I'll be taking in the action on the 13th and 14th. Other contributors to this blog will be at games on the 11th - 15th.

Oden in Pioneer Square

2007-06-29T22:09:00.000-05:00

My nephew is in the front row, right behind the microphone stand. He scored an autograph.

------------Update-------------------

My nephew is interviewed by KATU, declaring Oden to be "really good at basketball"

http://www.katu.com/sports/8250267.html (click on the video link at the beginning of the text)

Summer League Roster

2007-06-29T20:32:00.000-05:00

----------------Update---------------------

Koponen has been added to the summer league roster. Speculation - could Fernandez be added after the NY and Phoenix trades are finalized??

---------------------------------------------
#0 Taurean Green#2 Josh McRoberts#6 Stefano Mancinelli#8 Martell Webster#11 Sergio Rodriguez#12 LaMarcus Aldridge#18 Rick Apodaca#31 Zendon Hamilton#41 Joel Freeland#42 Mo Charlo#52 Greg Oden

http://blog.oregonlive.com/blazers/

Looks like 7 players of interest will be playing:

Green, McRoberts, Webster, Sergio, Aldridge, Freeland and Oden.

This will be our first look at the Aldridge/Oden tandem. I'm ready to go to Vegas.

Roster Analysis

2007-06-29T16:13:00.000-05:00

I’d like to think Pritchard can make another move or two before the season starts, but let’s take a look at what the Blazers have right now:

12 Guaranteed Contracts:

C – Greg Oden, Joel Pryzbilla, Raef Lafrentz
PF – LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye
SF – James Jones, Darius Miles
SG – Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
PG – Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Steve Francis

2 Euros Selected in the 1st round:

PG – Petteri Koponen
SG - Rudy Fernandez

2 Second Round Picks:

PF- Josh McRoberts
PG – Taurean Green

3 Free Agents:

SF - Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw
C - Jamal Magloire

This gives us a total of 19 players.

Jamal Magloire will not be re-signed. Rudy Fernandez will stay in Europe. That give us 17.

We won’t see both Koponen and Green on the roster this year. Either Koponen will stay in Europe or Green will be cut. That narrows it to 16.

Reportedly, we will try to buy out Steve Francis. Assuming that happens, we’d be down to 15.

I will be shocked if McRoberts doesn’t make the roster. I think he was a steal. I also think we should re-sign Ime (2 years, $2 million per) and Outlaw (4 years, $5 million per). We don’t want to play James Jones 40 minutes a night.

So my opening day depth chart looks like:

C- Oden/Pryzbilla/Lafrentz
PF- Aldridge/Outlaw/Frye/McRoberts
SF- Jones/Udoka/Miles
SG- Roy/Webster
PG- Jack/Sergio/Green

I see two serious weaknesses here: (i) youth, and (ii) lack of talent at the small forward position. Ten of our fifteen players are 23 or younger (actually 9, Frye just turned 24), including at least four starters. All that youth is great for the future of the franchise, but it will be tough to win a lot of games in the short term. This problem will take care of itself over the next few years.

The Blazers won’t be a contender until they upgrade at the small forward position. If Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster were to make huge strides over the next couple of seasons, that would work. Rudy Fernandez might be able to start alongside Roy in a year or two. But most likely, we’ll need to acquire another player through a trade or free agency. Our chances of bringing someone in this year fell significantly when we traded Z-Bo to New York. I’d like to see us dangle our tradeable non-core assets (Frye, Webster, Sergio, Fernandez, Koponen, Outlaw) in hopes of landing a veteran small forward that could help us right away (but young enough to still be a contributor four or five years down the road.) Rashard Lewis would be ideal, as would Tayshaun Prince. Gerald Wallace or Andres Nocioni could work.

Draft Thoughts - Around the League

2007-06-29T14:07:00.000-05:00

- The Warriors, by sending Jason Richardson to the Bobcats for Brandan Wright, traded themselves back into the lottery next year. Wright is years aways from being an impact player. On the other hand, Charlotte took a real step toward being competitive. Richardson and Gerald Wallace would make a nice wing tandem if they could re-sign Wallace. If they want to sign and trade Wallace, KP should be calling.

- The Knicks already had the league's most dysfunctional roster heading into the draft. Trading for Zach Randolph didn't help. Randolph and Curry will form the slowest, worst-defending post tandem in the league - and they're both under contract until 2011, as is Jamal Crawford. Any chance the Knicks had of cleaning house to land LeBron, Carmelo or D-Wade as a free agent down the line is now gone.

- The Celtics will be fun to watch, and will contend in the East for the next couple of years. I like the core of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Al Jefferson and Rajon Rondo. But they're not goood enough to win a championship, and Allen doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank.

- Seattle's selection of Jeff Green doesn't make sense if they're planning to re-sign Rashard Lewis. I might run Lewis, Green and Durant out there at the 2/3/4 spots, but I've never seen a lineup like that before.

- Atlanta managed to not screw up their two lottery picks. Some have criticized the Horford pick, because Atlanta already has a ton of forwards. But none of Atlanta's other forwards can score in the post. That's like criticizing Portland for taking Oden because we already have Pryzbilla.

- The Lakers made no trades and drafted Javaris Crittenton. They're going nowhere.

Will the Blazers Regret Taking Oden?

2007-06-29T13:50:00.000-05:00

This lady thinks they should have picked Durant:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/27/AR2007062702924.html?hpid=sec-sports

"He's here, his name is Kevin Durant, and if the Portland Trail Blazers pass on him in the NBA draft in favor of Greg Oden, they'll rue it. Durant is a player for a new era, while a center like Oden, good as he might be, is a dinosaur by comparison. Draft Oden, and you get a guy who can play one position. Draft Durant, and you get a guy who can play five."

If Durant drops 50 on us every time we play against him for the next 15 years, we might regret not taking him. But it won't be because he can play multiple positions. That's just stupid. Does it really add a lot of value to the Sonics that you could roll out your 6'9" scoring machine as a point guard? If you could clone Kevin Durant, and have five of him playing all five positions, that would be helpful. If you just have one, then he can only play one position at a time.

Also, if dominant post players are "dinosaurs" why does either Shaq or Tim Duncan win the title every year?

If the Blazers Buy Out Steve Francis, Could They Sign Rashard Lewis?

2007-06-29T10:14:00.000-05:00

No.

According to Larry Koon's exhaustive NBA salary cap FAQ (available here: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#1), if the Blazers bought out Steve Francis' contract, the total amount of the buyout would count against the salary cap spread over the remaining term of the contract. Francis has two years left on his deal, at $33.5 million. If he agreed to a buyout for $20 million, he would count against Portland's cap at $10 million for each of the next two seasons. Such a buy-out would save Paul Allen some salary and some luxury tax, but would not get the Blazers under the salary cap (by my calculation, the Blazers' cap total would be around $57 million if they renounced Travis Outlaw, Ime Udoka and Jamal Magloire, and Francis agreed to a $20 million buy-out - the NBA salary cap was $53 million last year). So even with a buy-out, the Blazers will not be able to sign a free agent for more than the mid-level exception.

I'm making the assumption here that Francis isn't going to take less than $20 million. Unless his market value is $13.5 million (or more) over two seasons, he would lose money by taking a $20 million buy-out.

From Larry Koon's FAQ:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#59

How do buy-outs affect a team's salary cap?

The agreed-upon buy-out amount (see question number 59) is included in the team salary instead of the salary called for in the contract. If the player had more than one season left on his contract, then the buy-out money is distributed among those seasons in proportion to the original salary. For example, say a player had three seasons remaining on his contract, with salaries of $10 million, $11 million and $12 million. The player and team agree to a buyout of $15 million. The $15 million is therefore charged to the team salary over the three seasons. Since the original contract had $33 million left to be paid, and $10 million is 30.3% of $33 million, 30.3% of the $15 million buyout, or $4.545 million, is included in the team salary in the first season following the buyout. Likewise, 33.33% of $15 million, or $5 million, is included in the team salary in the second season, and 36.36% of $15 million, or $5.455 million, is included in the team salary in the third season.The distribution of the buy-out money is a matter of individual negotiation. Changing the number of years in which the money is paid does not change the number of years in which the team's team salary is charged. In the above example in which the player's contract is bought out with three seasons remaining, the buyout amount is always charged to the team salary over three seasons. It does not matter if the player is actually paid in a lump sum or over 20 years (a spread provision).

Proud Day for Chicago Bulls

2007-06-29T09:35:00.000-05:00

I'm glad we had the #1 pick and not #9.

More Trades - James Jones

2007-06-28T23:55:00.001-05:00

Update- the "other trade" is the acquisition of James Jones from the Suns, for a trade exception we picked up in the NY deal. Pretty weak.

From the Blazer post-draft press conference:

Pritchard says there is another deal pending, to be finalized in the next 7-10 days, involving a small forward. The Z-Bo trade has to be finalized before this next deal can go down. Pritchard says he'll probably get fined for talking about it.

Also, Demetrus Nichols was traded to the Knicks for a future 2nd-round pick.

Kevin Pritchard on KXL

2007-06-28T23:40:00.000-05:00

----Update----

The Blazers need to finalize the NY trade before they can announce another trade in the works. Stay tuned....
_________________

Pritchard is explaining the ZBO trade-

"We felt like going in a different direction."

When asked about Francis:

"He's on our team - we look forward to those guys coming."

"We're excited about the trade. We think it helped us - gave us some cap relief down the line. It gives us flexibility to bring in a really talented free agent down the line."

Sounds like this trade was just a pure salary dump. I can't believe this is the best we could do.

NY trade update

2007-06-28T22:59:00.000-05:00

Jason Quick reports the Z-Bo/Francis trade hasn't been finalized.

I'd back out while we still can.

Truehoop says this regarding a possible Steve Francis buyout:

"I have the suspicion that Steve Francis will never play in a Portland uniform, which is also what Blazer broadcaster Brian Wheeler is reportedly saying too. If he is bought out, Portland could get cap relief equivalent to half of whatever salary he might earn, if any, from another team."

If Francis is worth $8 million on the open market (that seems generous) that only gives Portland $4 million in cap relief. That doesn't leave us any room to sign a marquee small forward.

Dave at Blazersedge.com says this:
FYI if you're thinking contract buyout, the official rule is that the team and player can negotiate a buyout. It's up to them how much it's for. The buyout amount agreed upon counts against the cap. If Francis is willing to take a lot less money then a buyout makes sense. Otherwise there's little difference between buying him out or having him on the team. Well...except for the locker room cancer thing.

http://www.blazersedge.com/

Either way, we're not getting much cap relief this year.

I'm sorry to see Fred Jones go. He had a great attitude, he really wanted to play here, and I thought he was our best option as a backup to Brandon Roy.

Perhaps KP has a sign-and-trade in mind, but it doesn't look good.

2nd Round - McRoberts, Green, Nichols

2007-06-28T22:47:00.000-05:00

McRoberts is a great value in the second round. Nichols and Green had nice showings at the pre-draft camp, but will face an uphill battle to make the roster.

I can't help but think the Blazers will be making another significant move before the season starts.

Portland acquiring #30?

2007-06-28T21:36:00.001-05:00

--Update--- Petteri Koponen goes #30. The O-live Blazers blog says he's a Blazer.

Seattle takes Carl Landry at 31. Never seen him play.

Congratulations to Aaron Brooks going to Houston at #26!

Blazers pick up the Suns #24 pick - Francis buyout?

2007-06-28T20:19:00.000-05:00

--Update-- Bucher reports the Blazers have acquired the #24 pick from Phoenix for cash -- we're on the clock now.

I don't get the Z-Bo trade. By itself, the move doesn't make sense. If we wanted a salary dump, wouldn't Boston have traded us Theo Ratliff and a young guy or a future pick for Z-Bo?

Has Francis already agreed to a buyout?

If Francis never goes on the books, can the Blazers get under the cap?

Here's my calculation of our salaries for 07-08:

Raef - $11.8
Darius - 8.3
Joel - 5.7
LaMarcus - 4.3
Webster - 3.0
Roy - 2.9
Jack - 1.2
Sergio - 1
Frye - 2.5

Total (without Francis): $40.5 million
With Francis: $57 million

If we were able to buy out Francis, maybe we have the room under the cap to sign a Rashard Lewis or a Gerald Wallace???

This calculation doesn't take into account Oden ($ 5 mil???) or Travis Outlaw.

ZBO to NY a Done Deal - WTF???

2007-06-28T20:01:00.000-05:00

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/nba_experts/post/News-from-the-NBA-draft;_ylt=Aqbehwb1AgXTc_tmy9Zs2QW8vLYF?urn=nba,37854

Adrian Wojnarowski reports Portland has traded Z-Bo, Dickau and Fred Jones to the Knicks for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.

Frye averaged 12 a game in a decent rookie season, then 9.5 last year. Francis is 30 years old, and his career has tailed off considerably the last two seasons. Francis has two years left on his contract at $17 million per.

If this report is accurate, I hope there's something else going on here.

Greg Oden is a Blazer - Draft Analysis

2007-06-28T19:42:00.000-05:00

Two interesting developments so far:

1. Seattle and Boston pulled the trigger on Ray Allen for Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the #5 pick. Then Seattle took Jeff Green. Seattle must be planning for life without Rashard Lewis, because small forward is the natural position for Green, Durant and Lewis. I could see playing two of these guys together, but not all three. Lewis for Z-Bo seems like it makes sense for Seattle now...

2. Milwaukee took Yi Jianlian at #6, despite Yi's refusal to work out for them. Yi, Bogut and Villanueva make for an interesting post trio.

As of pick #13, Al Thornton is still on the board. I'd like to see him wind up a Blazer.

Email update

2007-06-28T17:36:00.000-05:00

"Jason Quick is reporting from NY…I missed it, but they just said that Quick told them that Oden is the pick. He’s also reporting that Ray Allen to Bos for #5 pick is “very real”. Not sure if there’s anyone else involved. Quick broke the Martell deal back in that draft."

Interesting stuff here. Seattle should be trying to move Ray Allen for young talent. Ray has about a 2-year window left. Seattle can't win that soon.

Ray Allen and Paul Pierce would be the best wing tandem in the League. Along with Rondo and Jefferson, Boston would be a contender for the junior varsity (Eastern Conference) crown.

Who would Seattle take at #5? They have two decent-to-mediocre point guards in Ridnour and Watson. If they draft Durant and can re-sign Rashard, they'll have two very tall, high-scoring small forwards. They have about 7 really bad centers and an average power forward in Chris Wilcox.

--- update --- Hoopshype.com reports this deal would include Szczerbiak and Delonte West, giving the Sonics a load of wing players. Perhaps they's take a look at Yi, B. Wright or Noah at #5?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If Ray Allen is on the trading block, the Jazz should be calling Seattle every day. With Williams, Boozer and Okur, Utah is one superstar wing player away from a championship. Allen is a perfect fit. Would any Seattle fan be interested in Kirilenko and Paul Milsap for Allen and Sene?

Kirilenko had a terrible year, but he's been terrific in the past. He's only 26. On the Sonics, Kirilenko could move back to power forward and away from the vengeful eye of Jerry Sloan. Milsap could give the Sonics a ton of good minutes off the bench.

If the Sonics could re-sign Lewis, they could throw out a lineup of RidWat, Lewis, Durant, Kirilenko, and Wilcox. That's a ton of length and rebounding, with Lewis and Durant providing the scoring punch.

-- Update --
Truehoop contradicts my source, saying Quick doesn't know who the Blazers will take.

"However, the Oregonian's Jason Quick is certainly on the very short list of people who might actually have some unique first-hand knowledge of the team's thinking, and he just told me that he really does not know what they'll do. A little intrigue!"

http://myespn.go.com/nba/truehoop

Rumor - Randolph to NY

2007-06-28T15:44:00.000-05:00

Hoopshype is reporting that the Blazers and Knicks have discussed a trade that would send Z-Bo to New York for Channing Frye and other pieces (reports vary). In theory, trading with Isaiah Thomas is a good idea. Unfortunately, there are very few desireable players on the Knicks' roster. In fact, David Lee is the only guy on the roster I'd be interested in. Frye had a promising rookie year, then followed it up with a rotten sophomore effort. Meanwhile, Lee morphed into a rebounding machine.

Any deal with NY needs to include Lee and either a future first rounder plus a mildly bad contract, or Lee plus an expiring contract (if NY has any). Otherwise, the Blazers can, and should, do better.

Top 20 Draft Prospects

2007-06-28T15:12:00.000-05:00

The following list ranks my top 20 prospects in the 2007 NBA Draft. This is not a mock draft. I am not predicting where any particular player will be drafted and I am not considering any particular team’s needs.

1. Greg Oden.

1a. Kevin Durant.

My thoughts on the Oden/Durant debate can be found here:
http://returntoblazermania.blogspot.com/2007/06/oden-or-durant.html

I give Oden a very slight edge because his interior defense and rebounding will give his team a chance to compete for championships. I think Kevin Durant will become one of the NBA’s all-time greatest players. But dominant big men win championships.

3. Al Horford. Horford is an obvious choice at #3. He grabbed nearly 10 rebounds a game, a remarkable stat given that he played only 27 minutes a night and had to compete with Joakim Noah for those boards. Horford has an above average back-to-the-basket post game and a nice midrange jumper. Horford’s ceiling is somewhere below Elton Brand, and his floor is somewhere above Udonis Haslem. He has all-star potential, helped by the likelihood that he’ll end up in the Eastern Conference.

4. Yi Jianlian. For all the talk of depth in this draft, the talent drops steeply after Oden/Durant, and drops again after Horford. Yi is the biggest wildcard in this draft. He possesses a rare combination of size, skill and athleticism. He will likely take a little longer to adjust to the NBA than many of his fellow draftees, but he should develop into a solid contributor who can score going to the basket or from the perimeter.

5. Corey Brewer. Brewer is widely regarded as the best perimeter defender in the draft. On offense, he can do a little of everything, and excels in transition. Brewer will be a lockdown defender who can score an efficient 15 points a game. I’d compare him to a higher-scoring Bruce Bowen, but let’s see Brewer endanger a few careers with cheap shots before we get all carried away.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdxXvkMB6gA

6. Mike Conley Jr. Conley performed impressively in his freshman season, carrying the Buckeyes to the final game of the NCAA tournament. Oden logged 20 minutes or less in OSU’s tournament games against Georgetown and Tennessee, leaving Conley to shoulder the load. Conley displayed remarkable quickness and a knack for getting to the foul line. He’s a solid distributor and penetrator. His outside shot needs work. Conley isn’t as good as Chris Paul or Deron Williams, but he will be an above average starting point guard in a year or two.

7. Al Thornton. Thornton has the attitude, athleticism and skill set to be a proficient scorer. He attacks the basket like a maniac, and can also shoot the 3. He’s ready to play now. This is just awesome:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ

8. Jeff Green. Green will be a nice role player. He’s not going to be a huge scorer or rebounder in the NBA, but he has a high basketball IQ and he know how to win. He’s an excellent passer and team player.

9. Spencer Hawes. This year’s number one big white stiff! Actually, Hawes moves pretty well and has a nice offensive repertoire. He can block shots, and if he weren’t such a pathetic rebounder, I might rate him even higher. Hawes is better than several current starting centers in the League.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhuFhACWg2E

10. Acie Law. I’ll let Steven Danley handle this one for me:

"When we were preparing to play Texas A. & M. in the tournament, the scouting report pointed out an amazing stat. In the last two minutes of close basketball games, Law outscored the entire opposing team. It wasn't until we actually played him that I understood what that stat meant. For most of the game Law was content to set up his teammates, trying to involve everyone in the game. Coming down the stretch in the second half he went for the jugular and ran off a couple of quick buckets to put us away. Say what you want about his skills or his quickness, but if you have to win a game, you want this kid on the court."

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-25-103/To-Opponents--Acie-Law-is-the-Truth.html

11. Joakim Noah. I never liked this guy, even before his epileptic fit:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQ3y5hTHuP4

He’ll be a good defender and rebounder, as well as an embarrassment to a franchise.

12. Brandan Wright. Until recently, many sites had Wright projected as high as #3, comparing him to Chris Bosh. Wright is actually a lot like Bosh, only without the basketball skills and the desire to rebound. He’ll score around the basket and block a few shots.

13. Thaddeus Young. Young is a couple of years away from contributing, but he has an NBA body and he can shoot from outside.

14. Aaron Brooks. Brooks is a 2nd round talent, but if I don’t create some 1st round buzz for him, who will?

15-16. Marco Bellinelli/Tiago Splitter/Marc Gasol/Rudy Fernandez. I realize I just listed four guys for two spots. I’ll predict two of these guys will be decent, and two will suck. I’m not going to try to guess which two based on youtube clips and the opening paragraphs of Chad Ford columns that I’m too cheap to pay for full access to.

17. Sean Williams. Williams blocked 5 shots a game before getting booted off his team. He’s probably capable of blocking a few in the NBA too. Sounds like an Eddie Griffin-type player. He can ride shotgun in Griffin’s Escalade.

http://sports.outsidethebeltway.com/2006/07/eddie-griffin-driving-while-masturbating/

18. Josh McRoberts. I’ve been making fun of this guy since the day he arrived on the Duke campus. He’s the latest incarnation of the Big Goofy Duke White Guy. Watched a Duke game lately? I don’t even think they’re offering scholarships to black players anymore. But now that it comes down to draft day, and all the really good prospects are gone, McRoberts doesn’t look so bad anymore. While his scoring and rebounding aren’t going to wow anybody, he did average a very impressive 3.5 assists and 2.5 blocks last season.

19. Julian Wright. Blip…Blip…Blip…Beep…Beep!...Beeeepp!!...BEEEEPPP!!!!

Sorry, the DMD (Darius Miles Detector) is really going berserk here. Really athletic? Check. Can’t shoot? Check. Kind of an idiot? Check.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s

20. Jared Dudley. Dudley averaged 19 and 8 boards on his way to being the ACC Player of the Year. Josh Howard comes to mind. Dudley’s a competitor, and he’ll find a spot in someone’s rotation. He won’t be quite the steal that Howard was for Dallas, but he’ll be a good value pick late in the first round.

Busts:

Nick Young – I watched USC play at least 5 times this year and it never crossed my mind that Nick Young was an NBA talent.

Rodney Stuckey – A tweener from a tiny college whose NBA comparison on ww.nbadraft.net is DeJuan Wagner.

Javaris Crittenton – A turnover prone, shoot-first point guard.

Worth a flier:

Glen Davis, aka Big Baby. Let me get this straight. A year ago, a fat Glen Davis was considered a potential lottery pick. Now he’s lost something like 50 pounds, and he’s considered a 2nd rounder? Davis will make a roster.

Alando Tucker – Once considered a Naismith candidate, got hurt near the end of the season.

It's Oden - according to espn.com

2007-06-27T23:33:00.000-05:00

The ESPN.com front page says Greg Oden has been told he'll be the #1 pick. The message boards say otherwise. Jason Quick says he's worried that Pritchard wants Durant. Picking Durant at this point would be an incredibly bold move. I'm just excited to see what happens. I'll be blogging before, during and after the draft tomorrow.

Five Random Thoughts

2007-06-27T23:17:00.000-05:00

Here is what I’m thinking about right now:

Ime Udoka is a class guy and deserves a spot on a roster…just not with Portland. He’s spent nearly his whole life here as a high schooler, then at Portland State and then bouncing around the various minor leagues before finally catching on with the Blazers. The most amazing thing about Udoka for me was the fact that his contract was not guaranteed until early January. Meaning that if the Blazers had cut him, they wouldn’t have had to pay him. Talk about pressure. Udoka possessed the mental toughness to earn a starting role, the unflinching support of guys like Zach Randolph, Brandon Roy and Nate McMillan, all while playing with a huge weight on his shoulders. His NBA life was in the balance but he relaxed, played and contributed. Which brings me to Martell Webster. The kid is guaranteed money, he’s set for life. But he plays as if one misdeed is going to get him cut. As if a 1-8 shooting performance means getting put out of the league. He can’t relax. In short, he doesn’t possess a shred of mental toughness. I like Udoka, God love him, but the Blazers need an upgrade at that position.
I think Thad Matta should be fired for his tank job in coaching the Buckeyes in the championship game last year. While the Ohio State guards were bombing away, hoisting 23 three pointers in the final game loss to Florida, Greg Oden was a beast inside. He fouled out Chris Richard, drew four fouls on Joaquim Noah, three on Horford and three on Maurice Speights enroute to 25 points and 12 boards. So why did Matta give the green light to guys like Jamar Butler (1-6 from three), Ron Lewis (0-4) and Ivan Harris (2-8)? Oden was 10-15 from the field and 5-8 at the line. Check out the shot charts from the game and tell me who should have attempted 23 shots. Matta deserves a ton of credit for Florida’s championship. Even if Oden was tiring, he should have touched the ball on the block every time. That was a hatchet job of coaching if I’ve ever seen one. Or perhaps he was trying to devalue his big man so he’d consider staying in school or is he that incompetent?
Everyone in Portland is saying that Sergio is the point guard and Sergio is the future etc etc. I disagree with this and would love to see Jack have a chance to develop his game. NBA point guard is a steep learning curve and some guys take several years to pick it up or really emerge. I think Jack, while already solid, will develop into a borderline all-star before he’s done. He’s a tough, hard-nosed kid, who loves to compete and wants to improve. He lost his confidence a few times last year but as I said, point guard is a tough position to come in and excel at right off the bat. Somehow in just under 13 minutes a game, Portland fall in love with Sergio. Sergio had some flashes, but Jack was Portland’s third leading scorer, leading assist-man and an emotional and physical leader down the stretch when the rest of the club was sidelined. Sergio did have a few nice games, 23 points and 10 assists vs. Denver, an 18 point game against Minnesota and a 9 point, 10 assist game vs. Phoenix. But Jack was consistent all year and is still growing. He put up some big games as well, 30 points and seven boards against the Lakers, a 22 point, 8 assist, nine board gem against Toronto etc. Jack has potential to be a very good NBA player. He’s a better finisher around the rim than Sergio, stronger and a better defender. I’m not ready to turn over the keys to Sergio just yet. Let the foursome of Jack, Roy, Aldridge and Oden grow together. That group of four could go down in Blazer history.
The sad case of Darius Miles. I still forget he’s actually technically on the roster. I’ve heard he’s more than 40 pounds over his playing weight. He had some physical gifts but must have given his mental gifts away. He never cared about basketball, never really wanted it and probably will look back on his career and think, “man, all those coaches and organizations screwed me over, wouldn’t let me play my game.” Or he’ll say, “yep, I was a baller. If not for that knee injury…” Whatever the case and whatever he says, I doubt we’ll ever see him in an NBA arena again. Wait, do any NBDL teams play in NBA arenas? What about the IBL?
Suddenly the Blazers are marketable again, with young engaging players who avoid jail and strip clubs. Brandon Roy is the golden boy/savior, he of the rookie of the year award and even the delivery of the #1 draft pick. Aldridge appears to be somewhat quiet and unassuming, but I’ve heard him in several interviews and he’s actually very engaging and thoughtful. Oden is a character. I feel like he’s got genuine opinions (newsflash - he likes the WNBA), thoughts and beliefs and he’ll fit in perfectly in this locker-room. So the question is who is going to be the face? Who’ll be on the billboards, the buses, the bobbleheads etc? In short, they all will. I think they’ll all be on the billboards on I-5 and outside the arena, they’ll all appear in commercials for GI Joes and Columbia Sportswear and they’ll all be Grand Marshall’s for the Rose Festival parades. They are fun, funny and likable or exactly the opposite of ‘Sheed, Bonzi Wells and JR Rider.

How the 2006 Draft Resurrected the Portland Trailblazers

2007-06-27T14:41:00.001-05:00

Heading into Draft Day 2006, the Blazer franchise was at an all-time low. Coming off a 21-win season, Portland’s young “talent” consisted of Sebastian Telfair, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster and Ha Seung-Jin (a.k.a. the Embarrassing Sideshow). The Blazers were relying on Zach Randolph (post-microfracture), Darius Miles (pre-microfracture) and Theo Ratliff (completely crippled) for “veteran leadership.” Despite holding the league’s worst record, and thus the league’s most ping-pong balls, the Blazers struck out in the lottery, landing the #4 pick. The Blazers were coming off a disastrous 2005 Draft, in which they had traded out of the #3 pick (and a chance to draft Chris Paul or Deron Williams) and selected Webster at #6.

Leading up to the draft, the 2006 class of prospects was considered to be weak. Texas forward LaMarcus Aldridge was projected as the #1 or #2 pick the entire season by http://www.nba.draft.net/. LSU pogo stick Tyrus Thomas burst onto the scene with a tremendous NCAA tournament and became the potential top pick. Andrea Bargnani was a wildcard – kind of a Dirk Nowitzki-type, but not nearly as good. Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay and Randy Foye were all mentioned as possible top-5 picks. Blazerland was clamoring for management to draft the “‘Stache”, Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison. (In retrospect, Morrison crying during an NCAA Tournament game, while his team still had a chance to win, probably should have alerted everyone that he was not a top-5 pick. Also the fact that he doesn’t play defense or rebound.)

Heading into the draft, I wanted LaMarcus Aldridge. I’m a Texas alum, and was a big fan of LaMarcus as a college player. The one guy I didn’t want was Tyrus Thomas. My Darius Miles Detector starts beeping whenever I see a guy who is (i) really athletic, (ii) can’t shoot, and (iii) seems like kind of an idiot. Thomas hits the trifecta.

I groaned when the Bulls drafted Aldridge. I would have groaned even louder when the Blazers drafted Thomas, if the Blazers/Bulls trade (Thomas and Khryapa for Aldridge) hadn’t already been reported. I was satisfied at this point. Contrary to Stephen A. Smith’s inane rant on the subject, the Blazers had given up very little to land the top prospect in the draft with the #4 pick.

But the Blazers weren’t done there. Sometime prior to the draft, Danny Ainge apparently felt a twinge of guilt over letting the Blazers down in the ’92 Finals against Chicago, and decided to make things right. To help get the Blazer franchise on track, he traded Boston’s #7 pick to Portland for Sebastian Telfair. After a swap with Minnesota, the Blazers landed the soon-to-be 2007 Rookie of the Year, Brandon Roy. I had labeled Brandon Roy as the next Shane Battier – a nice role player who wasn’t athletic enough to be a star. I am happy to have been proven wrong. I would have taken Morrison ahead of Roy, which I guess makes me more like Michael Jordan than Kevin Pritchard.

(In between the Blazers’ two picks, the Atlanta Hawks decided Duke’s Shelden Williams was worthy of the #5 pick, apparently because they liked the added value of being able to project their game film on his forehead. Check out: http://www.nbadraft.net/actorteam.asp Scroll down about ¼ of the page to see the remarkable likeness Shelden bears to the animated Ken Griffey Jr. with gigantism from the classic “Homer at the Bat” Simpsons episode.)

Roy was the league’s best rookie from start to finish, averaging 17 a game and quickly becoming the most popular man in Portland. Aldridge hit his stride late in the season, averaging close to 15 points and 8 rebounds in the month of March, while showing all-star caliber potential. The Blazers improved by 10 wins, turned the team culture around, promoted Kevin Pritchard to GM, then won the Oden/Durant Sweepstakes despite 20-to-1 odds. Draft Day 2007 will be remembered as the day the Blazers landed Greg Oden, but Draft Day 2006 was the Blazers’ Resurrection Day.

Portland asking too much for Randolph?

2007-06-27T09:34:00.000-05:00

http://www.hoopshype.com/rumors.htm

Hoopshype has a link (to a bullet point citing an anonymous source) saying the Blazers are asking too much for Zach Randolph. This is good. We don't need to give Zach away. We can sit tight while the fate of Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal and Pau Gasol is decided. After teams like Chicago or Detroit realize they can't land one of those guys, Zach will become their best option.

I think a trade with Chicago involving Nocioni, a contract, and the #9 pick for Z-Bo would make sense for both teams. Nocioni is stuck behind Deng in Chicago, and the Bulls aren't going to find the low-post scorer they need at #9. For Portland, Aldridge is ready to step in at the 4, Nocioni would be an upgrade from Udoka at the 3, and they'd be free to take the best player available at #9.

If Chicago needs a little extra to make this deal, I'm willing to throw in a couple of 2nd rounders, or even Martell Webster, if they want him.

This trade is a bit complicated due to Nocioni's free agent status. He'd have to come over as a sign-and-trade, and this can't happen until July 1. But as long as Chicago doesn't draft a complete stiff (Spencer Hawes) I think there's some hope for this deal.

Martell Webster

2007-06-26T18:04:00.000-05:00

I'll be in Vegas to watch the Blazers' summer league in a couple weeks. One player I'll be particularly interested to watch is Martell Webster.

I was a little miffed when Portland traded out of the #3 spot of the '05 draft to take Webster. I wanted Chris Paul. I was disgusted when Paul tore through the league as a rookie. I was even more disheartended when Deron Williams proved to be an all-star caliber point guard this year. (disclosure: I had Raymond Felton rated ahead of Deron Williams, because I thought Williams was too slow.) We made a terrible trade and missed out on two fantastic point guards - apparently because we already had Sebastian Telfair on the roster.

I give that history, because I acknowledge that it probably negatively impacts my assessment of Webster, which is that he sucks. In the 21 undeserved minutes per game Martell played last year, he managed to shoot 39% from the field. And he didn't contribute anything else.

But there is some hope for Martell. He's only 20 years old. He's got a big NBA body, and a sweet shooting stroke (at least during practice). He can even finish a little bit around the rim.

My concern about Martell is for his mental game. Jason Quick predicted that Martell has played his final game as a Blazer. (It's in this chat: http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/jason_quick/index.ssf?/live/blazers/quick_041907.html )
Quick reports that Martell doesn't fit the culture, isn't coachable and isn't working to improve the way his teammates are.

I'll be looking for two things this summer from Webster: a positive attitude and some sign that he's improved. If I don't see those two things, I'll be ready to get rid of him and try to forget that we once had the #3 pick in the '05 draft. The one silver lining: If we'd had Chris Paul or Deron Williams this year, we'd have won way too many games to land the #1 pick.

Check back here in mid-July for full sumer league coverage.

Pryzbilla & Jack for #6

2007-06-26T15:06:00.000-05:00

Today's hot rumor suggests the Blazers and Bucks have discussed or considered a deal that would send Joel Pryzbilla and Jarrett Jack to Milwaukee for the #6 pick and Dan Gadzuric's corpse. I strongly doubt this deal will happen, but let's consider the ramifications of a trade like this.

I think this is a good deal for the Blazers if, and only if, they have a plan in place to replace Jack at the point. The problem with this scenario, and others involving Jack, is that they leave us scrambling to find starters for both the small forward and point guard positions.

I don't think Sergio Rodriguez or Dan Dickau can take us to the playoffs next year as the starter. Signing Steve Blake as the replacement starter would be a step backward, or at best a sideways move, as I've argued in my point guard post. So Portland either be (i) rolling the dice with Sergio, (ii) hoping Conley slides to #6, (iii) trading whatever tradeable assets we'd have left (Zach, Martell) to acquire a veteran point guard, or (iv) signing a veteran free agent within the mid-level exception (Blake is the best of the bunch. Jason Hart, Smush Parker and Chucky Atkins are also infinitely avaiable).

Pryzbilla is overpaid, considering he hardly made it onto the floor last season. Even when his scrotal region was healthy enough for him to compete, the team played 4-on-5 at the offensive end of the court. (Stat geeks, has anyone ever averaged both fewer points (2.0) and more blocked shots (1.5) than Joel did last season?) But I still think he brings some value to the Blazers (especially if we draft Durant, which I'm assuming we won't). At Ohio State, Oden frequently found himself in foul trouble, and occasionally became fatigued, as pointed out approximately 700 times by the broadcasters in the championship game against Florida. Between foul trouble, fatigue, and possible injury or occasional rookie benching, Portland will have plenty of room for a backup center. I don't believe Zach Randolph figures into the Blazers' long-term plans, so Aldridge needs to be the starting 4, not the backup 5. I haven't heard any talk of re-signing Magloire. I don't think we want LaFrentz or Gadzuric picking up all those minutes. So Joel does have some value to Portland, and his absence would leave another hole to fill.

On the positive side, the #6 pick is likely to yield a talented player. Oden, Durant and Al Horford will definitely be off the board. Yi Jianlian is an intriguing prospect, but he's a power forward and doesn't fit a need for us. Joakim Noah and Brandan Wright don't fit, either (and aren't going to be all that good. I wouldn't use a top-10 pick on either of these guys). That leaves, possibly, Conley, Corey Brewer and/or Jeff Green. Conley would make sense here, since he fills the point guard gap, has a higher upside than Jack, and is Oden's buddy. Also, we could fill the small forward need by trading Z-Bo. If the choice is between Brewer and Green, I'd take Brewer because of his superior perimeter defense and shooting ability.

A couple of points to remember- we're not loading up for a championship run this season or even next season. Teams full of rookies and young players don't win championships in the NBA. So we can trot Ime Udoka out as our starting 3, or Steve Blake as our point guard as a short-term solution, with an eye on upgrading to a more talented veteran down the road. But we're not going to be terrible anymore, either. Our days of landing top-5 draft picks are almost certainly over. So, while we're not desperate to make a move, our chances of landing high-quality young talent after this season are probably slim. Making the right moves with Z-Bo and Jack could make the difference between Portland being a contender, or a champion. So don't screw it up, Prichard.

Who will be the Blazers point guard in 07-08???

2007-06-25T22:48:00.000-05:00

Assuming the Blazers draft Oden, they will have the 2, 4 & 5 spots locked up, presumably for the next decade. But who will run the point for the talented Roy/Aldridge/Oden troika?

The Blazers have two promising young point guards on the roster, in Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez. The 23-year-old Jack averaged 12 points and 5 assists as the starter last season. He shot the ball at a reasonably efficient 45% clip from the field and an excellent 87% from the foul line. Jack suffered a late-season slump, averaging a mere 7.7 ppg in March, but finished with several strong games in April. Jack, by all accounts, has shown the high character and tremendous work ethic that Blazer management is trying to cultivate.

Although Jack had some consistency problems and is merely an average defender, I thought he showed nice progress in his second year and proved that he's capable of being a steady (although not spectacular) starting point guard in the League. So I found it surprising when Jack's name started popping up in several trade rumors this off-season. Why would the Blazers want to move him?

Jason Quick, in a chat this summer, suggested that Blazer management doesn't think Jack has the talent to lead a playoff contender (check here for the archives: http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/jason_quick/). But if Jack isn't the answer, who is?

21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie. It's hard not to get excited about Sergio's potential when you watch this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqJ1sBLfU8

But Sergio never found favor with Coach McMillan, and averaged a mere 13 minutes a game. His defense is porous, at best. I strongly doubt the Blazers are ready to turn the team over to Sergio next season. I'm not convinced he'll ever be the starter - he just doesn't strike me as a "Nate" guy. So if we're going to trade Jack, and Sergio isn't ready, who will Portland bring in?

Enter Steve Blake. The popular former Blazer averaged 8 points and around 7 assists as a starter for the second half of last season in Denver. Blake started 57 games for the Blazers in 05-06. Blake owns a home in Portland, and recently expressed a willingness to return. Blake is an unrestricted free agent, and could be signed quite cheaply.

I'd be happy to sign Blake as a backup. But frankly, I don't think he's good enough to be the starter. Blake is a 40% career shooter. His playoff performance against the Spurs this year was underwhelming. He looked completely out of place as a starting playoff point guard, and maintained a deer-in-headlights look down the stretch of the one close SA/DEN game that I caught. Also, click on the Sergio highlight video link above, and see if you can spot Blake being repeatedly torched on D- that is, until Denver had to switch to zone.

If the Blazers are going to trade Jack, I'm convinced they either (i) have a trade in place to bring in a talented veteran (Billups? Andre Miller? -this seems unlikely, but maybe Pritchard is up to something) or (ii) have their eye on a particular rookie in the draft.

This year's draft, while very strong at the top and deep at the small forward position, does not have many good point guards. Mike Conley is the top prospect, and will very likely land in the top 5. I think Portland would like to get Conley, but they certainly won't give up Roy or Aldridge to get him. I don't think anybody is willing to give up the #5 pick to get Zach Randolph. Acie Law of Texas A&M is the clear-cut #2 guy after Conley, in my mind. He's coming off a fantastic senior season, carrying his squad to a top-ten ranking for much of the year. Law has the size and the skill set to step in and start as a rookie. His shot, while unconventional, fell at a very solid 46% clip from deep last season. Javaris Crittenton of Georgia Tech is slated as a first round pick as well. Crittenton is a big, explosive scorer. He also averaged 4 turnovers a game while leading a talented GT team through a disappointing season. Crittenton is not ready to take over an NBA team (and may never be ready). Nor are we going to find a savior in the second round, although Ramon Sessions or Zabian Dowdell would probably be worth a flier with one of the Blazers' four picks.

I don't see a clear solution here. I hate the idea of moving Jack and signing Blake as the starter. Blake and Sergio have exactly the same weaknesses (and body type, which is one of the weaknesses). I like Acie Law, but would it be worth shipping a known quantity in Jack (possibly to Atlanta for the #11 pick) to acquire an unproven rookie?

I'd be perfectly happy if all the Jack trade talk turns out to be just a smokescreen. Let's pencil Jarrett in as the starter and worry about finding a small forward.

Oden vs. Durant - Just Pick Already!

2007-06-25T15:41:00.000-05:00

By nature, I hate hype. I get worn out by excessive coverage of a news item or event and despite my status as a HUGE Blazer fan, the Oden vs. Durant debate – AKA “Decision ’07” has worn me out.

Thankfully, the Oregon State Beavers gave me brief respite, but with the draft just four days away and the Beavs currently basking in a back-to-back championship haze, I have to weigh in as my colleague Jon has done.

First, I’m very excited to have Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Both should instantly make Portland better and put us on the brink of the playoffs. And secondly, they both appear to be great guys who will fit in perfectly with Portland’s youth/character movement of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jarrett Jack and everyone else not named Zach Randolph or Darius Miles.

The question remains though, who to take? GM Kevin Pritchard studied under Greg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs, so he knows first-hand what a revolutionary big man can do to a franchise. But he’s also very shrewd. I think everyone thinks he’ll take Oden, but he may love Durant. The fact that Durant wowed everyone at his recent workout only muddies the issue in my mind.

I’ve waffled back and forth. I started out as 100% Oden but I’ve wavered slightly after reading reports of Durant’s recent workout. Several weeks ago there was a report released the Oden was falling apart. His wrist won’t bend, he had bulging discs in his back, he was actually 43 years old etc etc etc. I don’t believe these reports and even if they are true, I trust the Blazers brass to poke and prod Oden in all the right places to see if he’s suitable to draft. So while I’ve waffled back and forth, I remain slightly in the Oden camp, believing (rightly so) that big men lead to championships. Even if Durant turns out to be the next Jordan, Oden is more Hakeem than Bowie.

All this leads me to my point. As long as the Blazer front office is on the same page, I’m okay with whomever they select. If Nate/Pritchard/Allen et al want Durant, I’m okay with it. If they want the big man, I’m okay with it. But no more of this crap we had a few years back where some in management wanted Chris Paul but John Nash wanted Martell Webster. Of course it was Nash who had selected Sebastian Telfair at 13 the year before and needed him to work out to save his job. So in that scenario, they weren’t on the same page…they weren’t even in the same book.

After one draft, Pritchard has an A+. Parlaying John Nash’s mistake into the rookie of the year and turning Victor Khryapa into LaMarcus Aldrige has earned him a lifetime of free drinks in Portland. If by selecting Oden or Durant, he helps bring a championship to Portland, the man could probably run for Mayor.

He’ll face stiff competition from Brandon Roy though.

Trade rumor - Boston

2007-06-25T14:39:00.000-05:00

I saw a new trade rumor with Boston today:

Zach, LaMarcus, and Portland's 08 first-rounder for
Al Jefferson, Ratliff, and the #5 pick.

Jefferson had a very strong 2nd half of the season last year, emerging as a 20/10 guy on the low block. But I don't think this trade makes sense for the Blazers.

Aldridge seems like a better fit alongside Oden in the post, because he has a nice midrange game. Jefferson is best planted on a block, just like Oden. If Portland's planning to draft Durant, I don't think they should move Zach unless a great offer comes along.

Would Boston make the deal minus Aldridge and Jefferson? If so, I'm all over it. The Blazers pick up Theo's expiring contract and have a good shot at Corey Brewer or Mike Conley. Portland's first-rounder next year won't be top-ten pick and isn't all that valuable. Moving Zach improves our prospects of signing a good veteran after the 08-09 season (when LaFrentz comes off the books).

NBA Draft 2007 - Small Forwards

2007-06-23T21:44:00.000-05:00

According to multiple sources, Kevin Pritchard is working hard to acquire a second lottery pick in this year's draft. The Blazers need an upgrade at small forward, and there are several good prospects in this draft. Following is my analysis of the top six small forwards:

Kevin Durant, Texas-

Far and away the 2nd-best prospect in the draft, he would have gone #1 in 8 of the last 9 drafts. See the Oden v. Durant post for more.

Corey Brewer, Florida-

Positives: reputed to be a lockdown defender, Brewer can also put the ball on the floor, finish in transition, and has decent touch on the perimeter. He won two national championships and was the MOP of the 2007 Final Four.

Negatives: I'm not convinced he'll be a 3-point threat in the NBA. He shot just 33.6% from 3 his senior season. He needs to get in the weight room (as does Durant). He wore a T-shirt under his jersey in college, suggesting he's none too proud of his physique.

Bottom line: Brewer brings a lot to the table at both ends of the floor and is a proven winner. Brewer's weaknesses - perimeter shooting and upper body strength - can be improved with enough work. Brewer's strengths - quickness, length, defensive tenacity - are more innate qualities, and set him apart from his draft competition. If Portland somehow lands Boston's #5 pick, this would be the small forward I'd take. (We'd also have to consider Conley Jr. at #5, especially if we move Jarrett Jack.)

Al Thornton, FSU -

I have to admit, I didn't watch a single Florida State game this season. I've been won over by his stats and a couple of youtube clips. Thornton put up 20 a game in the ACC on 53% shooting and 44% from deep. He also jumped over some guy's head and dunked on him. If Brewer's off the board, I'm rolling the dice on this guy. He could give the Blazers some serious scoring punch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBBBw3OoFrQ

Jeff Green, Georgetown -

Strengths- He's a smart player and he led Georgetown to a Final Four. He gets his teammates involved, and wouldn't take a lot of shots away from Aldridge and Oden.

Weakness- He's not much of an outside shooter, and he's a bit of a tweener. I don't know if he can defend NBA small forwards. He also travelled against Vandy. His statistics as a junior were exactly the same as when he was a freshman. He just strikes me as a role player. (Admission- I'd made that same comment about Brandon Roy prior to last year's draft.)

Bottom Line: The latest mock drafts at nbadraft.net and draftexpress.com have Green going to Boston at #5. I think that's too high. If Portland gets the #11 pick from Atlanta, and Green is still around, then I give him a look.

Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech-

Strengths- Young is a physical specimen. As a freshman, he scored 14 a game and shot 42% from three. He has the physical capability to be a big-time scorer and a solid defender.

Weaknesses- Raw, especially compared to the four guys I have rated ahead of him. I'm not convinced he has the skill set and mental game needed to contribute right away. Georgia Tech had one of the most talented teams in the country this year and barely made the NCAA tournament. Can't pin it all on Young, but his team's performance reflects poorly on all those guys (especially Javaris Crittendon, in my mind).

Bottom line: I think he'd have been a top ten pick in next year's draft if he'd gone back to school. Worth a pick in the teens if the Blazers wind up there somehow.

Julian Wright, Kansas-

Great athlete, can't shoot. Throw in a microfracture surgery, and you've got Darius Miles. I have very little interest in this guy.

This play alone dropped him 10 spots on my draft board:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTqVjbEFh_s

To be fair, a Darius Miles with a good attitude is probably worth a pick in the 15-20 range.

Some other guys that would be worth taking with a late 1st or early 2nd:
Alando Tucker
Jared Dudley

Oden or Durant??

2007-06-23T13:36:00.000-05:00

Pretty much every basketball blogger and major sports site has already weighed in on this topic, but I can't have a Blazers blog without addressing it. Almost everybody is advocating Oden, including the Blazer fan base (by about a 4-1 margin). I find myself in the Oden camp as well, albeit reluctantly.

I grew up in Portland, but I'm also a Longhorn (UT law, class of '04). I watched Texas play at least a dozen times this year. Kevin Durant is the most talented player I've seen in my 15 or so years of following college basketball. He can get his shot off at will, he can put the ball on the floor, and has nice touch around the basket. He also combines freakishly long arms with a nose for the ball, allowing him to snare a ton of rebounds, blocks, and steals. He's not a lockdown defender at this stage, but he has the physical tools (think Andrei Kirilenko before Jerry Sloan destroyed his mind) to be a disruptive force at that end of the court. The oft-maligned Rick Barnes occasionally put Durant at the top of the zone, where he was very effective disrupting passing lanes and challenging shots.

I will go on record with a prediction that Kevin Durant will lead the league in scoring at least once within the next five years. He'll also be a contributor at the defensive end. I won't be disappointed if the Blazers draft Durant.

However, I'm going to fall in line and advocate Oden, just like everybody else. Oden is going to be the best defensive center in the league for the next decade. His shot-blocking is devastating - ask Tennessee(see posted clips). He may never develop into a huge scorer, but he'll get 15-20 a game (on 55+ FG%) just by hanging around the basket and feeding on his teammates' scraps. A highly-efficient 20 ppg is of tremendous value to a team. I get excited every time I think about Oden paired with LaMarcus Aldridge (I'm very high on Aldridge- more on him in a future post).

As Kevin Pritchard likes to say, you have to pick the guy that will bring championships. History shows the most likely path to championships is through a dominant big man. Oden is that big man.

Vegas Summer League

2007-06-23T12:56:00.000-05:00

The creators of this blog will be in Vegas July 11-15 to watch the Blazers summer league. Check back here for analysis of the Blazers' summer leaguers and other players of interest.